Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25 °C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for early September and supports the market’s leading outcomes at 25 °C (48.5 %) and 24 °C (36.0 %). Ensemble guidance shows little spread in the overnight low, with only modest uncertainty from possible scattered showers or slight variations in cloud cover that could nudge readings by 1 °C. No significant frontal systems or typhoon influences are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 2?
25°C 50%
24°C 35%
23°C 12%
27°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
12%
24°C
35%
25°C
50%
26°C
6%
27°C
9%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 50%
24°C 35%
23°C 12%
27°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C
$90 Vol.
5%
23°C
$62 Vol.
12%
24°C
$140 Vol.
35%
25°C
$433 Vol.
50%
26°C
$490 Vol.
6%
27°C
$48 Vol.
9%
28°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$375 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25 °C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for early September and supports the market’s leading outcomes at 25 °C (48.5 %) and 24 °C (36.0 %). Ensemble guidance shows little spread in the overnight low, with only modest uncertainty from possible scattered showers or slight variations in cloud cover that could nudge readings by 1 °C. No significant frontal systems or typhoon influences are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,863End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25 °C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for early September and supports the market’s leading outcomes at 25 °C (48.5 %) and 24 °C (36.0 %). Ensemble guidance shows little spread in the overnight low, with only modest uncertainty from possible scattered showers or slight variations in cloud cover that could nudge readings by 1 °C. No significant frontal systems or typhoon influences are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,863End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25 °C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal overnight cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for early September and supports the market’s leading outcomes at 25 °C (48.5 %) and 24 °C (36.0 %). Ensemble guidance shows little spread in the overnight low, with only modest uncertainty from possible scattered showers or slight variations in cloud cover that could nudge readings by 1 °C. No significant frontal systems or typhoon influences are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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