**Forecast consensus from official sources positions the overnight minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1 near 23–24 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (including high-resolution runs) indicate an overnight low of 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light variable winds under 4 m/s, and high humidity near 90 %. These conditions suppress radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from falling far below the evening readings of ~25–26 °C observed on August 31. Recent late-August observations show persistently warm, humid maritime air with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative events to alter the pattern. Historical climatology for early September supports minimums in this range (normal ~22 °C), and current model agreement across JMA, ECMWF-derived products, and local stations reinforces the tight clustering around 23–24 °C. The modest spread to 25 °C or 22 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing during the final hours before sunrise. No major weather system is expected to shift the outcome before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
24°C 46%
23°C 30%
25°C 19%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
5%
22°C
2%
23°C
30%
24°C
46%
25°C
19%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 46%
23°C 30%
25°C 19%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
$203 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$226 Vol.
5%
22°C
$331 Vol.
2%
23°C
$290 Vol.
30%
24°C
$251 Vol.
46%
25°C
$276 Vol.
19%
26°C
$106 Vol.
4%
27°C
$83 Vol.
1%
28°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$124 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official sources positions the overnight minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1 near 23–24 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities.**
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (including high-resolution runs) indicate an overnight low of 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light variable winds under 4 m/s, and high humidity near 90 %. These conditions suppress radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from falling far below the evening readings of ~25–26 °C observed on August 31.
Recent late-August observations show persistently warm, humid maritime air with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative events to alter the pattern. Historical climatology for early September supports minimums in this range (normal ~22 °C), and current model agreement across JMA, ECMWF-derived products, and local stations reinforces the tight clustering around 23–24 °C.
The modest spread to 25 °C or 22 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing during the final hours before sunrise. No major weather system is expected to shift the outcome before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,170End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official sources positions the overnight minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1 near 23–24 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities.**
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (including high-resolution runs) indicate an overnight low of 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light variable winds under 4 m/s, and high humidity near 90 %. These conditions suppress radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from falling far below the evening readings of ~25–26 °C observed on August 31.
Recent late-August observations show persistently warm, humid maritime air with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative events to alter the pattern. Historical climatology for early September supports minimums in this range (normal ~22 °C), and current model agreement across JMA, ECMWF-derived products, and local stations reinforces the tight clustering around 23–24 °C.
The modest spread to 25 °C or 22 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing during the final hours before sunrise. No major weather system is expected to shift the outcome before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,170End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from official sources positions the overnight minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 1 near 23–24 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (including high-resolution runs) indicate an overnight low of 23–24 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light variable winds under 4 m/s, and high humidity near 90 %. These conditions suppress radiative cooling, keeping temperatures from falling far below the evening readings of ~25–26 °C observed on August 31. Recent late-August observations show persistently warm, humid maritime air with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative events to alter the pattern. Historical climatology for early September supports minimums in this range (normal ~22 °C), and current model agreement across JMA, ECMWF-derived products, and local stations reinforces the tight clustering around 23–24 °C. The modest spread to 25 °C or 22 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing during the final hours before sunrise. No major weather system is expected to shift the outcome before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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