Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a deepening marine layer and onshore flow across the Bay Area, fostering overnight stratus that curbs radiative cooling and supports minimum temperatures in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for September 1. This pattern aligns with trader emphasis on the 58–59°F range at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting moderation from historical early-September averages near 56°F amid a shortwave trough. Close outcomes around 56–61°F hinge on precise layer depth, wind strength, and any late-model adjustments, as persistent clouds typically prevent sharper drops while seasonal norms set the floor. Updated forecasts through the holiday weekend will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 1?
52-53°F 50%
54-55°F 50%
64-65°F 50%
68°F or higher 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
49°F or below
10%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
50%
54-55°F
50%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
38%
60-61°F
29%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
50%
66-67°F
47%
68°F or higher
49%
52-53°F 50%
54-55°F 50%
64-65°F 50%
68°F or higher 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
10%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
19%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
50%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
50%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
38%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
29%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
26%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
50%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
47%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a deepening marine layer and onshore flow across the Bay Area, fostering overnight stratus that curbs radiative cooling and supports minimum temperatures in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for September 1. This pattern aligns with trader emphasis on the 58–59°F range at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting moderation from historical early-September averages near 56°F amid a shortwave trough. Close outcomes around 56–61°F hinge on precise layer depth, wind strength, and any late-model adjustments, as persistent clouds typically prevent sharper drops while seasonal norms set the floor. Updated forecasts through the holiday weekend will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a deepening marine layer and onshore flow across the Bay Area, fostering overnight stratus that curbs radiative cooling and supports minimum temperatures in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for September 1. This pattern aligns with trader emphasis on the 58–59°F range at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting moderation from historical early-September averages near 56°F amid a shortwave trough. Close outcomes around 56–61°F hinge on precise layer depth, wind strength, and any late-model adjustments, as persistent clouds typically prevent sharper drops while seasonal norms set the floor. Updated forecasts through the holiday weekend will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a deepening marine layer and onshore flow across the Bay Area, fostering overnight stratus that curbs radiative cooling and supports minimum temperatures in the upper 50s Fahrenheit for September 1. This pattern aligns with trader emphasis on the 58–59°F range at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting moderation from historical early-September averages near 56°F amid a shortwave trough. Close outcomes around 56–61°F hinge on precise layer depth, wind strength, and any late-model adjustments, as persistent clouds typically prevent sharper drops while seasonal norms set the floor. Updated forecasts through the holiday weekend will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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