Current short-range model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a mild early-spring day in Buenos Aires on September 1, with a forecast maximum near 18°C under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. This aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 19–20°C, shaped by the seasonal transition from winter anticyclones and the moderating influence of the Río de la Plata. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C because small differences in insolation from variable cloud cover, weak frontal advection, or urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, limiting support for outcomes below 18°C or above 22°C absent an unexpected warm-air surge from the north. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further adjustment in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 1?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 1?
20°C 50%
19°C 28%
21°C 23%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
4%
17°C
6%
18°C
19%
19°C
28%
20°C
35%
21°C
23%
22°C
7%
23°C
4%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 50%
19°C 28%
21°C 23%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$8 Vol.
35%
21°C
$0 Vol.
23%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a mild early-spring day in Buenos Aires on September 1, with a forecast maximum near 18°C under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. This aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 19–20°C, shaped by the seasonal transition from winter anticyclones and the moderating influence of the Río de la Plata. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C because small differences in insolation from variable cloud cover, weak frontal advection, or urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, limiting support for outcomes below 18°C or above 22°C absent an unexpected warm-air surge from the north. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further adjustment in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a mild early-spring day in Buenos Aires on September 1, with a forecast maximum near 18°C under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. This aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 19–20°C, shaped by the seasonal transition from winter anticyclones and the moderating influence of the Río de la Plata. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C because small differences in insolation from variable cloud cover, weak frontal advection, or urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, limiting support for outcomes below 18°C or above 22°C absent an unexpected warm-air surge from the north. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further adjustment in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to a mild early-spring day in Buenos Aires on September 1, with a forecast maximum near 18°C under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. This aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 19–20°C, shaped by the seasonal transition from winter anticyclones and the moderating influence of the Río de la Plata. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–21°C because small differences in insolation from variable cloud cover, weak frontal advection, or urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, limiting support for outcomes below 18°C or above 22°C absent an unexpected warm-air surge from the north. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further adjustment in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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