Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid as of September 1, indicate a mild Atlantic-influenced pattern for Amsterdam on September 3, with daytime maxima clustering near 20–22°C under variable cloud cover, light showers, and westerly winds of 15–20 mph. This aligns with the climatological average high of 20.6°C and recent ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming or cooling. Trader emphasis on the 22°C and 23°C outcomes reflects model consensus around these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation that could suppress peaks. Historical analogs from 1991–2025 confirm 21–23°C as the most frequent range for the date, with official updates from KNMI and next model cycles likely to refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 3?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 3?
22°C 49%
23°C 40%
21°C 11%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
11%
22°C
49%
23°C
40%
24°C
6%
25°C or higher
3%
22°C 49%
23°C 40%
21°C 11%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
15°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$107 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$95 Vol.
3%
21°C
$91 Vol.
11%
22°C
$236 Vol.
49%
23°C
$381 Vol.
40%
24°C
$29 Vol.
6%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid as of September 1, indicate a mild Atlantic-influenced pattern for Amsterdam on September 3, with daytime maxima clustering near 20–22°C under variable cloud cover, light showers, and westerly winds of 15–20 mph. This aligns with the climatological average high of 20.6°C and recent ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming or cooling. Trader emphasis on the 22°C and 23°C outcomes reflects model consensus around these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation that could suppress peaks. Historical analogs from 1991–2025 confirm 21–23°C as the most frequent range for the date, with official updates from KNMI and next model cycles likely to refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,518End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid as of September 1, indicate a mild Atlantic-influenced pattern for Amsterdam on September 3, with daytime maxima clustering near 20–22°C under variable cloud cover, light showers, and westerly winds of 15–20 mph. This aligns with the climatological average high of 20.6°C and recent ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming or cooling. Trader emphasis on the 22°C and 23°C outcomes reflects model consensus around these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation that could suppress peaks. Historical analogs from 1991–2025 confirm 21–23°C as the most frequent range for the date, with official updates from KNMI and next model cycles likely to refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,518End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs valid as of September 1, indicate a mild Atlantic-influenced pattern for Amsterdam on September 3, with daytime maxima clustering near 20–22°C under variable cloud cover, light showers, and westerly winds of 15–20 mph. This aligns with the climatological average high of 20.6°C and recent ensemble guidance showing limited potential for stronger warming or cooling. Trader emphasis on the 22°C and 23°C outcomes reflects model consensus around these thresholds, tempered by uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation that could suppress peaks. Historical analogs from 1991–2025 confirm 21–23°C as the most frequent range for the date, with official updates from KNMI and next model cycles likely to refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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