**Latest numerical weather predictions place Amsterdam's September 1 maximum near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** Multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of 30 August, show surface high pressure near 1020 hPa building over the North Sea, suppressing strong advection while allowing broken cloud that limits peak insolation. This setup produces daytime highs clustered between 19–21 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. The market's near-even split between the 20 °C (44.5 %) and 21 °C (40.0 %) contracts mirrors this tight uncertainty range, as traders weigh the precise diurnal peak against historical early-September climatology of roughly 19–20 °C. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the outcome resolution sensitive to the final 12–24 hours of observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 1?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 1?
20°C 45%
21°C 40%
19°C 14%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
5%
19°C
14%
20°C
45%
21°C
40%
22°C
6%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
21°C 40%
19°C 14%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$8 Vol.
45%
21°C
$164 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather predictions place Amsterdam's September 1 maximum near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** Multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of 30 August, show surface high pressure near 1020 hPa building over the North Sea, suppressing strong advection while allowing broken cloud that limits peak insolation. This setup produces daytime highs clustered between 19–21 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. The market's near-even split between the 20 °C (44.5 %) and 21 °C (40.0 %) contracts mirrors this tight uncertainty range, as traders weigh the precise diurnal peak against historical early-September climatology of roughly 19–20 °C. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the outcome resolution sensitive to the final 12–24 hours of observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$221End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather predictions place Amsterdam's September 1 maximum near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** Multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of 30 August, show surface high pressure near 1020 hPa building over the North Sea, suppressing strong advection while allowing broken cloud that limits peak insolation. This setup produces daytime highs clustered between 19–21 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. The market's near-even split between the 20 °C (44.5 %) and 21 °C (40.0 %) contracts mirrors this tight uncertainty range, as traders weigh the precise diurnal peak against historical early-September climatology of roughly 19–20 °C. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the outcome resolution sensitive to the final 12–24 hours of observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$221End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather predictions place Amsterdam's September 1 maximum near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow.** Multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF guidance valid as of 30 August, show surface high pressure near 1020 hPa building over the North Sea, suppressing strong advection while allowing broken cloud that limits peak insolation. This setup produces daytime highs clustered between 19–21 °C, with ensemble spreads reflecting small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. The market's near-even split between the 20 °C (44.5 %) and 21 °C (40.0 %) contracts mirrors this tight uncertainty range, as traders weigh the precise diurnal peak against historical early-September climatology of roughly 19–20 °C. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the outcome resolution sensitive to the final 12–24 hours of observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions