Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 2 will likely settle near 9–11 °C under persistent northwesterly flow. This regime limits radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air across the region, keeping the lowest temperature from dropping into the single digits below 9 °C. Spring climatology supports this range, with historical early-September lows averaging around 9–10 °C when northwesterlies dominate. Trader positioning around the 10 °C and 9 °C outcomes reflects model consensus and the absence of incoming cold fronts or clear, calm conditions that would allow sharper overnight falls. Updated model runs through September 1 have shown little shift, anchoring implied probabilities near these levels ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
37%
8°C
37%
9°C
-
10°C
64%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$51 Vol.
37%
8°C
$65 Vol.
37%
9°C
$68 Vol.
-
10°C
$72 Vol.
64%
11°C
$303 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 2 will likely settle near 9–11 °C under persistent northwesterly flow. This regime limits radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air across the region, keeping the lowest temperature from dropping into the single digits below 9 °C. Spring climatology supports this range, with historical early-September lows averaging around 9–10 °C when northwesterlies dominate. Trader positioning around the 10 °C and 9 °C outcomes reflects model consensus and the absence of incoming cold fronts or clear, calm conditions that would allow sharper overnight falls. Updated model runs through September 1 have shown little shift, anchoring implied probabilities near these levels ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,566End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 2 will likely settle near 9–11 °C under persistent northwesterly flow. This regime limits radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air across the region, keeping the lowest temperature from dropping into the single digits below 9 °C. Spring climatology supports this range, with historical early-September lows averaging around 9–10 °C when northwesterlies dominate. Trader positioning around the 10 °C and 9 °C outcomes reflects model consensus and the absence of incoming cold fronts or clear, calm conditions that would allow sharper overnight falls. Updated model runs through September 1 have shown little shift, anchoring implied probabilities near these levels ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,566End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 2 will likely settle near 9–11 °C under persistent northwesterly flow. This regime limits radiational cooling while advecting milder maritime air across the region, keeping the lowest temperature from dropping into the single digits below 9 °C. Spring climatology supports this range, with historical early-September lows averaging around 9–10 °C when northwesterlies dominate. Trader positioning around the 10 °C and 9 °C outcomes reflects model consensus and the absence of incoming cold fronts or clear, calm conditions that would allow sharper overnight falls. Updated model runs through September 1 have shown little shift, anchoring implied probabilities near these levels ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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