Latest numerical weather prediction models point to a Wellington minimum near 12–13 °C on 3 September, driven by moderate northwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under early-spring conditions. Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to the Southern Ocean normally produce lows of 8–10 °C this time of year, yet the current synoptic pattern with building high pressure and dew points near 9 °C favors milder boundary-layer temperatures. Small differences in wind speed, cloud timing, and model physics separate the closely matched 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes, while any increase in clear-sky duration or lighter winds could push readings toward 11 °C or below. Updated model runs and observational data through the overnight period will further constrain the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
10°C 49%
8°C or below 48%
12°C 44%
11°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
48%
9°C
2%
10°C
49%
11°C
27%
12°C
44%
13°C
44%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
10°C 49%
8°C or below 48%
12°C 44%
11°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
48%
9°C
$5 Vol.
2%
10°C
$5 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$5 Vol.
44%
14°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models point to a Wellington minimum near 12–13 °C on 3 September, driven by moderate northwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under early-spring conditions. Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to the Southern Ocean normally produce lows of 8–10 °C this time of year, yet the current synoptic pattern with building high pressure and dew points near 9 °C favors milder boundary-layer temperatures. Small differences in wind speed, cloud timing, and model physics separate the closely matched 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes, while any increase in clear-sky duration or lighter winds could push readings toward 11 °C or below. Updated model runs and observational data through the overnight period will further constrain the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$711End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models point to a Wellington minimum near 12–13 °C on 3 September, driven by moderate northwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under early-spring conditions. Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to the Southern Ocean normally produce lows of 8–10 °C this time of year, yet the current synoptic pattern with building high pressure and dew points near 9 °C favors milder boundary-layer temperatures. Small differences in wind speed, cloud timing, and model physics separate the closely matched 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes, while any increase in clear-sky duration or lighter winds could push readings toward 11 °C or below. Updated model runs and observational data through the overnight period will further constrain the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$711End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models point to a Wellington minimum near 12–13 °C on 3 September, driven by moderate northwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under early-spring conditions. Wellington’s maritime setting and exposure to the Southern Ocean normally produce lows of 8–10 °C this time of year, yet the current synoptic pattern with building high pressure and dew points near 9 °C favors milder boundary-layer temperatures. Small differences in wind speed, cloud timing, and model physics separate the closely matched 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes, while any increase in clear-sky duration or lighter winds could push readings toward 11 °C or below. Updated model runs and observational data through the overnight period will further constrain the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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