Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, positioning 12°C as the market leader at 60% implied probability amid typical early-spring variability. Northwesterly winds and a passing frontal system are expected to moderate temperatures without extreme cold advection, keeping the chance of sub-8°C readings at just 7.5% while supporting modest upside to 13–14°C. Historical climatology for early September shows average minima near 9–10°C, with current model consensus reinforcing this baseline absent major high-pressure development or southerly outbreaks. Updated runs from NOAA and regional agencies in the next 12–24 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
7°C or below 74%
11°C 74%
14°C 73%
9°C 72%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
74%
8°C
15%
9°C
72%
10°C
72%
11°C
74%
12°C
61%
13°C
40%
14°C
73%
15°C
8%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
1%
7°C or below 74%
11°C 74%
14°C 73%
9°C 72%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
74%
8°C
$0 Vol.
15%
9°C
$0 Vol.
72%
10°C
$0 Vol.
72%
11°C
$0 Vol.
74%
12°C
$0 Vol.
61%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
73%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, positioning 12°C as the market leader at 60% implied probability amid typical early-spring variability. Northwesterly winds and a passing frontal system are expected to moderate temperatures without extreme cold advection, keeping the chance of sub-8°C readings at just 7.5% while supporting modest upside to 13–14°C. Historical climatology for early September shows average minima near 9–10°C, with current model consensus reinforcing this baseline absent major high-pressure development or southerly outbreaks. Updated runs from NOAA and regional agencies in the next 12–24 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$221End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, positioning 12°C as the market leader at 60% implied probability amid typical early-spring variability. Northwesterly winds and a passing frontal system are expected to moderate temperatures without extreme cold advection, keeping the chance of sub-8°C readings at just 7.5% while supporting modest upside to 13–14°C. Historical climatology for early September shows average minima near 9–10°C, with current model consensus reinforcing this baseline absent major high-pressure development or southerly outbreaks. Updated runs from NOAA and regional agencies in the next 12–24 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$221End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, positioning 12°C as the market leader at 60% implied probability amid typical early-spring variability. Northwesterly winds and a passing frontal system are expected to moderate temperatures without extreme cold advection, keeping the chance of sub-8°C readings at just 7.5% while supporting modest upside to 13–14°C. Historical climatology for early September shows average minima near 9–10°C, with current model consensus reinforcing this baseline absent major high-pressure development or southerly outbreaks. Updated runs from NOAA and regional agencies in the next 12–24 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions