Recent official forecasts from sources including MetService-aligned models, WeatherBug, and Yr.no converge on a maximum temperature of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 3, 2026, under persistent northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk. This spring pattern, near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 14–15°C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (52.5%) and 17°C (41.5%) as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing modest daytime warming without significant frontal systems or cloud cover that would suppress highs. Updated guidance released in the past 24–48 hours has reinforced this range, limiting downside risk to 15°C or below while keeping probabilities for 18°C or higher low absent stronger insolation or wind shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
16°C 54%
17°C 39%
15°C 6%
18°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
6%
16°C
54%
17°C
39%
18°C
4%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 54%
17°C 39%
15°C 6%
18°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
10°C or below
$198 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$275 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$490 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,070 Vol.
6%
16°C
$1,707 Vol.
54%
17°C
$2,639 Vol.
39%
18°C
$621 Vol.
4%
19°C
$690 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including MetService-aligned models, WeatherBug, and Yr.no converge on a maximum temperature of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 3, 2026, under persistent northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk. This spring pattern, near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 14–15°C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (52.5%) and 17°C (41.5%) as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing modest daytime warming without significant frontal systems or cloud cover that would suppress highs. Updated guidance released in the past 24–48 hours has reinforced this range, limiting downside risk to 15°C or below while keeping probabilities for 18°C or higher low absent stronger insolation or wind shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,598End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including MetService-aligned models, WeatherBug, and Yr.no converge on a maximum temperature of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 3, 2026, under persistent northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk. This spring pattern, near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 14–15°C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (52.5%) and 17°C (41.5%) as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing modest daytime warming without significant frontal systems or cloud cover that would suppress highs. Updated guidance released in the past 24–48 hours has reinforced this range, limiting downside risk to 15°C or below while keeping probabilities for 18°C or higher low absent stronger insolation or wind shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,598End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including MetService-aligned models, WeatherBug, and Yr.no converge on a maximum temperature of 15–16°C for Wellington on September 3, 2026, under persistent northwesterly winds of 20–25 mph, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk. This spring pattern, near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 14–15°C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (52.5%) and 17°C (41.5%) as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing modest daytime warming without significant frontal systems or cloud cover that would suppress highs. Updated guidance released in the past 24–48 hours has reinforced this range, limiting downside risk to 15°C or below while keeping probabilities for 18°C or higher low absent stronger insolation or wind shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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