Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory place the September 3 maximum in a 25–30°C range amid northwest winds and scattered showers linked to nearby tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea. This uncertainty, combined with model spreads on cloud cover and timing of any daytime clearing, drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28–30°C. Breaks of sunshine could allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 30–31°C, while persistent low cloud or earlier showers would favor 28°C or lower by limiting surface heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Updated HKO guidance and high-resolution model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
29°C 31%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
8%
28°C
16%
29°C
31%
30°C
26%
31°C
13%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 31%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
23°C or below
$11 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$205 Vol.
2%
26°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$169 Vol.
8%
28°C
$277 Vol.
16%
29°C
$254 Vol.
31%
30°C
$88 Vol.
26%
31°C
$339 Vol.
13%
32°C
$139 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory place the September 3 maximum in a 25–30°C range amid northwest winds and scattered showers linked to nearby tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea. This uncertainty, combined with model spreads on cloud cover and timing of any daytime clearing, drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28–30°C. Breaks of sunshine could allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 30–31°C, while persistent low cloud or earlier showers would favor 28°C or lower by limiting surface heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Updated HKO guidance and high-resolution model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,603End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory place the September 3 maximum in a 25–30°C range amid northwest winds and scattered showers linked to nearby tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea. This uncertainty, combined with model spreads on cloud cover and timing of any daytime clearing, drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28–30°C. Breaks of sunshine could allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 30–31°C, while persistent low cloud or earlier showers would favor 28°C or lower by limiting surface heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Updated HKO guidance and high-resolution model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,603End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory place the September 3 maximum in a 25–30°C range amid northwest winds and scattered showers linked to nearby tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea. This uncertainty, combined with model spreads on cloud cover and timing of any daytime clearing, drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28–30°C. Breaks of sunshine could allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 30–31°C, while persistent low cloud or earlier showers would favor 28°C or lower by limiting surface heating and enhancing evaporative cooling. Updated HKO guidance and high-resolution model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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