Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate the lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3 will likely reach 25–27 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated dew points associated with a moist easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance shows overnight lows near 25 °C amid 65–80 % precipitation chances and northeast winds of 10–20 km/h. These conditions align with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 51.5 % implied probability, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or below reflect limited potential for clearer skies or stronger cooling. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this short-range forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
26°C 52%
27°C 23%
29°C 20%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
22°C or below
15%
23°C
11%
24°C
14%
25°C
17%
26°C
52%
27°C
23%
28°C
15%
29°C
20%
30°C
14%
31°C
10%
32°C or higher
4%
26°C 52%
27°C 23%
29°C 20%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
15%
23°C
$20 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C
$14 Vol.
52%
27°C
$0 Vol.
23%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$5 Vol.
20%
30°C
$5 Vol.
14%
31°C
$5 Vol.
10%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate the lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3 will likely reach 25–27 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated dew points associated with a moist easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance shows overnight lows near 25 °C amid 65–80 % precipitation chances and northeast winds of 10–20 km/h. These conditions align with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 51.5 % implied probability, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or below reflect limited potential for clearer skies or stronger cooling. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this short-range forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$59End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate the lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3 will likely reach 25–27 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated dew points associated with a moist easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance shows overnight lows near 25 °C amid 65–80 % precipitation chances and northeast winds of 10–20 km/h. These conditions align with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 51.5 % implied probability, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or below reflect limited potential for clearer skies or stronger cooling. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this short-range forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate the lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 3 will likely reach 25–27 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and elevated dew points associated with a moist easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance shows overnight lows near 25 °C amid 65–80 % precipitation chances and northeast winds of 10–20 km/h. These conditions align with the market’s leading 26 °C outcome at 51.5 % implied probability, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or below reflect limited potential for clearer skies or stronger cooling. Updated model runs and China Meteorological Administration briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this short-range forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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