**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 3 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (23°C at 40.5%, 22°C at 24.0%, 24°C at 20.5%).** High pressure near 1018–1019 hPa, light to moderate westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Model consensus across sources such as WeatherBug (projecting ~24°C / 75°F), Worldmeteo (24°C), and others shows afternoon peaks in this narrow band, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs often reach the low-to-mid 20s before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Recent observations from September 1–2, with highs near 21–23°C under similar synoptic patterns, reinforce this stability. With resolution only two days away, traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast cluster heavily, though minor revisions from updated GFS or ECMWF runs could shift probabilities within the 22–24°C range if cloud cover or wind speeds deviate. Lower-probability outcomes (25°C+ or 21°C and below) reflect the low likelihood of strong warming or cooling advection in the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 3?
23°C 43%
24°C 32%
22°C 24%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C
9%
22°C
24%
23°C
43%
24°C
19%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 43%
24°C 32%
22°C 24%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C
$5 Vol.
3%
20°C
$40 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$6 Vol.
24%
23°C
$41 Vol.
43%
24°C
$5 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 3 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (23°C at 40.5%, 22°C at 24.0%, 24°C at 20.5%).**
High pressure near 1018–1019 hPa, light to moderate westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Model consensus across sources such as WeatherBug (projecting ~24°C / 75°F), Worldmeteo (24°C), and others shows afternoon peaks in this narrow band, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs often reach the low-to-mid 20s before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month.
Recent observations from September 1–2, with highs near 21–23°C under similar synoptic patterns, reinforce this stability. With resolution only two days away, traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast cluster heavily, though minor revisions from updated GFS or ECMWF runs could shift probabilities within the 22–24°C range if cloud cover or wind speeds deviate. Lower-probability outcomes (25°C+ or 21°C and below) reflect the low likelihood of strong warming or cooling advection in the current setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$443End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 3 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (23°C at 40.5%, 22°C at 24.0%, 24°C at 20.5%).**
High pressure near 1018–1019 hPa, light to moderate westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Model consensus across sources such as WeatherBug (projecting ~24°C / 75°F), Worldmeteo (24°C), and others shows afternoon peaks in this narrow band, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs often reach the low-to-mid 20s before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month.
Recent observations from September 1–2, with highs near 21–23°C under similar synoptic patterns, reinforce this stability. With resolution only two days away, traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast cluster heavily, though minor revisions from updated GFS or ECMWF runs could shift probabilities within the 22–24°C range if cloud cover or wind speeds deviate. Lower-probability outcomes (25°C+ or 21°C and below) reflect the low likelihood of strong warming or cooling advection in the current setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$443End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 3 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (23°C at 40.5%, 22°C at 24.0%, 24°C at 20.5%).** High pressure near 1018–1019 hPa, light to moderate westerly winds, and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Model consensus across sources such as WeatherBug (projecting ~24°C / 75°F), Worldmeteo (24°C), and others shows afternoon peaks in this narrow band, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs often reach the low-to-mid 20s before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month. Recent observations from September 1–2, with highs near 21–23°C under similar synoptic patterns, reinforce this stability. With resolution only two days away, traders appear to be weighting the tight forecast cluster heavily, though minor revisions from updated GFS or ECMWF runs could shift probabilities within the 22–24°C range if cloud cover or wind speeds deviate. Lower-probability outcomes (25°C+ or 21°C and below) reflect the low likelihood of strong warming or cooling advection in the current setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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