Wellington’s mid-July maximum temperatures typically average near 12°C under climatological norms, yet the market’s tight clustering around 10°C (46% implied probability) and 11°C (36.5%) reflects near-term forecast guidance favoring slightly cooler conditions. Primary drivers include strengthening southerly flow behind a passing front, which advects cooler maritime air from the Southern Ocean, combined with increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Model consensus from agencies such as NIWA and MetService shows daily highs for 11 July in the 9–11°C range, with modest uncertainty arising from exact timing of any northerly surge or clearing that could push readings to 12°C or hold them at 9°C. Seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures are equally likely through July, consistent with trader positioning that assigns low odds to warmer extremes above 12°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 11?
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$46,274 Vol.
$46,274 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$46,274 Vol.
$46,274 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
5°C or below
$545 Vol.
No
6°C
$732 Vol.
No
7°C
$3,328 Vol.
No
8°C
$5,251 Vol.
No
9°C
$7,864 Vol.
No
10°C
$13,607 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$9,316 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,992 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,542 Vol.
No
14°C
$602 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$495 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s mid-July maximum temperatures typically average near 12°C under climatological norms, yet the market’s tight clustering around 10°C (46% implied probability) and 11°C (36.5%) reflects near-term forecast guidance favoring slightly cooler conditions. Primary drivers include strengthening southerly flow behind a passing front, which advects cooler maritime air from the Southern Ocean, combined with increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Model consensus from agencies such as NIWA and MetService shows daily highs for 11 July in the 9–11°C range, with modest uncertainty arising from exact timing of any northerly surge or clearing that could push readings to 12°C or hold them at 9°C. Seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures are equally likely through July, consistent with trader positioning that assigns low odds to warmer extremes above 12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$46,274End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s mid-July maximum temperatures typically average near 12°C under climatological norms, yet the market’s tight clustering around 10°C (46% implied probability) and 11°C (36.5%) reflects near-term forecast guidance favoring slightly cooler conditions. Primary drivers include strengthening southerly flow behind a passing front, which advects cooler maritime air from the Southern Ocean, combined with increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Model consensus from agencies such as NIWA and MetService shows daily highs for 11 July in the 9–11°C range, with modest uncertainty arising from exact timing of any northerly surge or clearing that could push readings to 12°C or hold them at 9°C. Seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures are equally likely through July, consistent with trader positioning that assigns low odds to warmer extremes above 12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,274End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Wellington’s mid-July maximum temperatures typically average near 12°C under climatological norms, yet the market’s tight clustering around 10°C (46% implied probability) and 11°C (36.5%) reflects near-term forecast guidance favoring slightly cooler conditions. Primary drivers include strengthening southerly flow behind a passing front, which advects cooler maritime air from the Southern Ocean, combined with increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Model consensus from agencies such as NIWA and MetService shows daily highs for 11 July in the 9–11°C range, with modest uncertainty arising from exact timing of any northerly surge or clearing that could push readings to 12°C or hold them at 9°C. Seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures are equally likely through July, consistent with trader positioning that assigns low odds to warmer extremes above 12°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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