Recent meteorological observations and forecast models from MetService New Zealand show Wellington's daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 17°C under persistent southerly flows and stable high-pressure conditions typical for late autumn in the region. This data aligns with historical May averages and current atmospheric patterns, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for 17°C as traders incorporate verified readings through the afternoon. Minor uncertainty remains from potential late-day wind shifts or localized warming that could briefly push readings to 18°C before midnight, though ensemble guidance assigns very low probability to such deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 21?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 21?
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,457 Vol.
$65,457 Vol.
May 21, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,457 Vol.
$65,457 Vol.
May 21, 2026
10°C or below
$1,111 Vol.
No
11°C
$912 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,548 Vol.
No
13°C
$13,884 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,245 Vol.
No
15°C
$15,696 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,937 Vol.
No
17°C
$11,511 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$7,170 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,251 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$1,193 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and forecast models from MetService New Zealand show Wellington's daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 17°C under persistent southerly flows and stable high-pressure conditions typical for late autumn in the region. This data aligns with historical May averages and current atmospheric patterns, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for 17°C as traders incorporate verified readings through the afternoon. Minor uncertainty remains from potential late-day wind shifts or localized warming that could briefly push readings to 18°C before midnight, though ensemble guidance assigns very low probability to such deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$65,457End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and forecast models from MetService New Zealand show Wellington's daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 17°C under persistent southerly flows and stable high-pressure conditions typical for late autumn in the region. This data aligns with historical May averages and current atmospheric patterns, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for 17°C as traders incorporate verified readings through the afternoon. Minor uncertainty remains from potential late-day wind shifts or localized warming that could briefly push readings to 18°C before midnight, though ensemble guidance assigns very low probability to such deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,457End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological observations and forecast models from MetService New Zealand show Wellington's daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 17°C under persistent southerly flows and stable high-pressure conditions typical for late autumn in the region. This data aligns with historical May averages and current atmospheric patterns, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for 17°C as traders incorporate verified readings through the afternoon. Minor uncertainty remains from potential late-day wind shifts or localized warming that could briefly push readings to 18°C before midnight, though ensemble guidance assigns very low probability to such deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions