Official observations from Wellington International Airport confirm a midday peak of 17°C on May 6, 2026, under persistent mostly cloudy skies, high 90% humidity, and gusty northerlies at 30+ km/h, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. MetService forecasts align precisely, projecting no higher than 17°C as cloud cover suppresses solar heating despite northerly winds advecting milder maritime air above the climatological May average of 15–16°C. Ensemble model consensus shows minimal upside risk, with showers north of the harbor further capping temperatures. A realistic challenge would require unexpected late-afternoon clearing for rapid insolation-driven warming to 18°C or 19°C before sunset around 5 PM, though current trajectories make this unlikely; final airport data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 6?
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$113,195 Vol.
$113,195 Vol.
May 6, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$113,195 Vol.
$113,195 Vol.
May 6, 2026
10°C or below
$11,572 Vol.
No
11°C
$10,693 Vol.
No
12°C
$8,952 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,489 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,811 Vol.
No
15°C
$6,602 Vol.
No
16°C
$19,190 Vol.
No
17°C
$17,127 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$17,684 Vol.
No
19°C
$13,665 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$3,410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Wellington International Airport confirm a midday peak of 17°C on May 6, 2026, under persistent mostly cloudy skies, high 90% humidity, and gusty northerlies at 30+ km/h, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. MetService forecasts align precisely, projecting no higher than 17°C as cloud cover suppresses solar heating despite northerly winds advecting milder maritime air above the climatological May average of 15–16°C. Ensemble model consensus shows minimal upside risk, with showers north of the harbor further capping temperatures. A realistic challenge would require unexpected late-afternoon clearing for rapid insolation-driven warming to 18°C or 19°C before sunset around 5 PM, though current trajectories make this unlikely; final airport data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET
Volume
$113,195End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Wellington International Airport confirm a midday peak of 17°C on May 6, 2026, under persistent mostly cloudy skies, high 90% humidity, and gusty northerlies at 30+ km/h, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. MetService forecasts align precisely, projecting no higher than 17°C as cloud cover suppresses solar heating despite northerly winds advecting milder maritime air above the climatological May average of 15–16°C. Ensemble model consensus shows minimal upside risk, with showers north of the harbor further capping temperatures. A realistic challenge would require unexpected late-afternoon clearing for rapid insolation-driven warming to 18°C or 19°C before sunset around 5 PM, though current trajectories make this unlikely; final airport data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$113,195End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Wellington International Airport confirm a midday peak of 17°C on May 6, 2026, under persistent mostly cloudy skies, high 90% humidity, and gusty northerlies at 30+ km/h, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome. MetService forecasts align precisely, projecting no higher than 17°C as cloud cover suppresses solar heating despite northerly winds advecting milder maritime air above the climatological May average of 15–16°C. Ensemble model consensus shows minimal upside risk, with showers north of the harbor further capping temperatures. A realistic challenge would require unexpected late-afternoon clearing for rapid insolation-driven warming to 18°C or 19°C before sunset around 5 PM, though current trajectories make this unlikely; final airport data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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