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Geopolitics·Lebanon

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Lebanon

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Mar 31

Mar 31

NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,679 Vol.

Polymarket

March 18

$1,958 Vol.

97%

March 19

$3,116 Vol.

74%

March 20

$147 Vol.

69%

March 21

$819 Vol.

62%

March 22

$1 Vol.

57%

March 23

$1 Vol.

60%

March 24

$1 Vol.

55%

March 25

$1 Vol.

56%

March 26

$1,627 Vol.

52%

March 27

$1 Vol.

53%

March 28

$1 Vol.

53%

March 29

$1 Vol.

53%

March 30

$1 Vol.

54%

March 31

$1 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.

For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$7,679
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Intensified Israel-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges drive trader consensus on potential Israeli military action against Beirut, following repeated rocket fire into northern Israel and Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs. Recent developments include Israel's October 25 precision strikes eliminating senior Hezbollah commanders like Hashem Safieddine, alongside IDF evacuation warnings for Beirut areas amid threats of expanded operations. Diplomatic pushes for a ceasefire, including U.S. and French proposals tied to UN Resolution 1701 implementation, temper escalation risks, but Hezbollah's vowed retaliation sustains uncertainty. Traders monitor upcoming UN Security Council sessions and ground developments in southern Lebanon for pivotal shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel military action against Beirut on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 18" at 97%, followed by "March 19" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel military action against Beirut on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel military action against Beirut on...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel military action against Beirut on...?" is "March 18" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 19" at 74%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel military action against Beirut on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.