Recent official analyses from monitoring agencies confirm July 2026 global surface temperatures aligned with the 1.20–1.24°C anomaly bin above the relevant baseline, driving complete trader consensus. Persistent El Niño conditions through mid-2026 sustained elevated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, consistent with ERA5 and similar reanalysis datasets showing the month as joint-second warmest on record. This outcome reflects measured departures from 1991–2020 averages combined with pre-industrial baselines, reinforced by land and ocean observations. Revisions to final datasets, shifts in baseline definitions, or discrepancies between agencies like NOAA and Copernicus could theoretically alter resolution, though current verification makes such changes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$61,346 Vol.
$61,346 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
No
1.10–1.14ºC
No
1.15–1.19ºC
No
1.20–1.24ºC
Yes
1.25–1.29ºC
No
>1.29ºC
No
1.20–1.24ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$61,346 Vol.
$61,346 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$8,525 Vol.
No
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,404 Vol.
No
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,967 Vol.
No
1.20–1.24ºC
$14,088 Vol.
Yes
1.25–1.29ºC
$15,630 Vol.
No
>1.29ºC
$4,732 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses from monitoring agencies confirm July 2026 global surface temperatures aligned with the 1.20–1.24°C anomaly bin above the relevant baseline, driving complete trader consensus. Persistent El Niño conditions through mid-2026 sustained elevated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, consistent with ERA5 and similar reanalysis datasets showing the month as joint-second warmest on record. This outcome reflects measured departures from 1991–2020 averages combined with pre-industrial baselines, reinforced by land and ocean observations. Revisions to final datasets, shifts in baseline definitions, or discrepancies between agencies like NOAA and Copernicus could theoretically alter resolution, though current verification makes such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$61,346End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses from monitoring agencies confirm July 2026 global surface temperatures aligned with the 1.20–1.24°C anomaly bin above the relevant baseline, driving complete trader consensus. Persistent El Niño conditions through mid-2026 sustained elevated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, consistent with ERA5 and similar reanalysis datasets showing the month as joint-second warmest on record. This outcome reflects measured departures from 1991–2020 averages combined with pre-industrial baselines, reinforced by land and ocean observations. Revisions to final datasets, shifts in baseline definitions, or discrepancies between agencies like NOAA and Copernicus could theoretically alter resolution, though current verification makes such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$61,346End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent official analyses from monitoring agencies confirm July 2026 global surface temperatures aligned with the 1.20–1.24°C anomaly bin above the relevant baseline, driving complete trader consensus. Persistent El Niño conditions through mid-2026 sustained elevated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, consistent with ERA5 and similar reanalysis datasets showing the month as joint-second warmest on record. This outcome reflects measured departures from 1991–2020 averages combined with pre-industrial baselines, reinforced by land and ocean observations. Revisions to final datasets, shifts in baseline definitions, or discrepancies between agencies like NOAA and Copernicus could theoretically alter resolution, though current verification makes such changes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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