The Kansas 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 84.5% implied probability. Incumbent Ron Estes faces a primary challenger but holds established advantages in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball ahead of the August 4, 2026 primaries and November general election. Multiple Democratic primary candidates signal limited general-election competitiveness, consistent with the seat's historical margins and absence of recent polling shifts or major developments that would alter baseline expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$31,315 Vol.
$31,315 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
85%
Partido Demócrata
14%
$31,315 Vol.
$31,315 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$18,602 Vol.
85%
Partido Demócrata
$12,713 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Kansas 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 84.5% implied probability. Incumbent Ron Estes faces a primary challenger but holds established advantages in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball ahead of the August 4, 2026 primaries and November general election. Multiple Democratic primary candidates signal limited general-election competitiveness, consistent with the seat's historical margins and absence of recent polling shifts or major developments that would alter baseline expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$31,315Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Kansas 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 84.5% implied probability. Incumbent Ron Estes faces a primary challenger but holds established advantages in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball ahead of the August 4, 2026 primaries and November general election. Multiple Democratic primary candidates signal limited general-election competitiveness, consistent with the seat's historical margins and absence of recent polling shifts or major developments that would alter baseline expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,315Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Kansas 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 84.5% implied probability. Incumbent Ron Estes faces a primary challenger but holds established advantages in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball ahead of the August 4, 2026 primaries and November general election. Multiple Democratic primary candidates signal limited general-election competitiveness, consistent with the seat's historical margins and absence of recent polling shifts or major developments that would alter baseline expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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