Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to persistent warm, humid air masses with light winds and limited cloud cover overnight into August 25, keeping Miami's daily minimum temperature centered near 80–81°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average lows hover around 77–79°F but recent high-pressure ridging has suppressed typical radiational cooling. Updated model runs show minimal spread, with dew points remaining above 75°F and no frontal passage or tropical moisture surge expected to alter the trajectory before dawn. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, with the next most likely range (78–79°F) reflecting only modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing increases slightly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 25?
80-81°F 48%
78-79°F 25%
82-83°F 16%
84-85°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
2%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
48%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
7%
88°F or higher
2%
80-81°F 48%
78-79°F 25%
82-83°F 16%
84-85°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
$27 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$81 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$23 Vol.
48%
82-83°F
$52 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$74 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
7%
88°F or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to persistent warm, humid air masses with light winds and limited cloud cover overnight into August 25, keeping Miami's daily minimum temperature centered near 80–81°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average lows hover around 77–79°F but recent high-pressure ridging has suppressed typical radiational cooling. Updated model runs show minimal spread, with dew points remaining above 75°F and no frontal passage or tropical moisture surge expected to alter the trajectory before dawn. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, with the next most likely range (78–79°F) reflecting only modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing increases slightly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$292End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to persistent warm, humid air masses with light winds and limited cloud cover overnight into August 25, keeping Miami's daily minimum temperature centered near 80–81°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average lows hover around 77–79°F but recent high-pressure ridging has suppressed typical radiational cooling. Updated model runs show minimal spread, with dew points remaining above 75°F and no frontal passage or tropical moisture surge expected to alter the trajectory before dawn. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, with the next most likely range (78–79°F) reflecting only modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing increases slightly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$292End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to persistent warm, humid air masses with light winds and limited cloud cover overnight into August 25, keeping Miami's daily minimum temperature centered near 80–81°F. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average lows hover around 77–79°F but recent high-pressure ridging has suppressed typical radiational cooling. Updated model runs show minimal spread, with dew points remaining above 75°F and no frontal passage or tropical moisture surge expected to alter the trajectory before dawn. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, with the next most likely range (78–79°F) reflecting only modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing increases slightly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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