Recent NOAA and NWS model consensus supports overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical humidity with dew points in the mid-70s that sharply limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Partly cloudy skies from scattered afternoon convection further moderate temperature drops, while light southerly winds prevent stronger inversions. These factors explain why the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning at 42.5% and 33.5% implied probability, respectively, with narrower spreads reflecting forecast uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cloud effects. Historical August averages near 80°F provide additional context for the tight clustering around these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 23?
80-81°F 43%
82-83°F 34%
78-79°F 14%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
43%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 43%
82-83°F 34%
78-79°F 14%
84-85°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
6%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
14%
80-81°F
$16 Vol.
43%
82-83°F
$1 Vol.
34%
84-85°F
$53 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$10 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and NWS model consensus supports overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical humidity with dew points in the mid-70s that sharply limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Partly cloudy skies from scattered afternoon convection further moderate temperature drops, while light southerly winds prevent stronger inversions. These factors explain why the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning at 42.5% and 33.5% implied probability, respectively, with narrower spreads reflecting forecast uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cloud effects. Historical August averages near 80°F provide additional context for the tight clustering around these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$116End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and NWS model consensus supports overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical humidity with dew points in the mid-70s that sharply limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Partly cloudy skies from scattered afternoon convection further moderate temperature drops, while light southerly winds prevent stronger inversions. These factors explain why the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning at 42.5% and 33.5% implied probability, respectively, with narrower spreads reflecting forecast uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cloud effects. Historical August averages near 80°F provide additional context for the tight clustering around these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$116End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and NWS model consensus supports overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical humidity with dew points in the mid-70s that sharply limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Partly cloudy skies from scattered afternoon convection further moderate temperature drops, while light southerly winds prevent stronger inversions. These factors explain why the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominate trader positioning at 42.5% and 33.5% implied probability, respectively, with narrower spreads reflecting forecast uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cloud effects. Historical August averages near 80°F provide additional context for the tight clustering around these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions