Forecast models for New York City on July 1, 2026, point to overnight lows in the mid-70s as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. These conditions reduce radiative heat loss compared to clearer, calmer nights, keeping minimum temperatures elevated above the long-term July average near 70°F at Central Park. Differentiation among close outcomes around 74–77°F versus higher bins stems from subtle variations in cloud cover, dew point depression, and urban heat retention, which can add 2–4°F to the recorded low. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs show modest uncertainty in the final minimum, consistent with the tightly clustered market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 1?
76-77°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$60,195 Vol.
$60,195 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
76-77°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$60,195 Vol.
$60,195 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
63°F or below
$968 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$9,296 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$5,445 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$2,262 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$2,178 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$5,045 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$7,436 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$13,420 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$6,052 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$5,241 Vol.
No
82°F or higher
$2,851 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for New York City on July 1, 2026, point to overnight lows in the mid-70s as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. These conditions reduce radiative heat loss compared to clearer, calmer nights, keeping minimum temperatures elevated above the long-term July average near 70°F at Central Park. Differentiation among close outcomes around 74–77°F versus higher bins stems from subtle variations in cloud cover, dew point depression, and urban heat retention, which can add 2–4°F to the recorded low. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs show modest uncertainty in the final minimum, consistent with the tightly clustered market probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$60,195End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for New York City on July 1, 2026, point to overnight lows in the mid-70s as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. These conditions reduce radiative heat loss compared to clearer, calmer nights, keeping minimum temperatures elevated above the long-term July average near 70°F at Central Park. Differentiation among close outcomes around 74–77°F versus higher bins stems from subtle variations in cloud cover, dew point depression, and urban heat retention, which can add 2–4°F to the recorded low. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs show modest uncertainty in the final minimum, consistent with the tightly clustered market probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$60,195End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast models for New York City on July 1, 2026, point to overnight lows in the mid-70s as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. These conditions reduce radiative heat loss compared to clearer, calmer nights, keeping minimum temperatures elevated above the long-term July average near 70°F at Central Park. Differentiation among close outcomes around 74–77°F versus higher bins stems from subtle variations in cloud cover, dew point depression, and urban heat retention, which can add 2–4°F to the recorded low. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs show modest uncertainty in the final minimum, consistent with the tightly clustered market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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