National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance confirmed an overnight low of 54–55°F for New York City on May 25, 2026, driven by mild southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and minimal radiational cooling under a weak pressure gradient. These conditions aligned closely with climatological norms for late May, when average lows hover near 61°F but can dip into the mid-50s with limited clear-sky nighttime cooling. The market-implied consensus at 100% for the 54–55°F bin reflects traders’ confidence in the official daily minimum from the National Weather Service Climatological Report. A shift would require an unexpected revision in verified station data or measurement methodology, both of which remain stable once finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 25?
54-55°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$20,462 Vol.
$20,462 Vol.
May 25, 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
Yes
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
54-55°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$20,462 Vol.
$20,462 Vol.
May 25, 2026
47°F or below
$4,678 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$671 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$867 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,494 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$2,126 Vol.
Yes
56-57°F
$1,559 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$980 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$2,174 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$1,082 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,399 Vol.
No
66°F or higher
$3,433 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance confirmed an overnight low of 54–55°F for New York City on May 25, 2026, driven by mild southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and minimal radiational cooling under a weak pressure gradient. These conditions aligned closely with climatological norms for late May, when average lows hover near 61°F but can dip into the mid-50s with limited clear-sky nighttime cooling. The market-implied consensus at 100% for the 54–55°F bin reflects traders’ confidence in the official daily minimum from the National Weather Service Climatological Report. A shift would require an unexpected revision in verified station data or measurement methodology, both of which remain stable once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$20,462End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance confirmed an overnight low of 54–55°F for New York City on May 25, 2026, driven by mild southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and minimal radiational cooling under a weak pressure gradient. These conditions aligned closely with climatological norms for late May, when average lows hover near 61°F but can dip into the mid-50s with limited clear-sky nighttime cooling. The market-implied consensus at 100% for the 54–55°F bin reflects traders’ confidence in the official daily minimum from the National Weather Service Climatological Report. A shift would require an unexpected revision in verified station data or measurement methodology, both of which remain stable once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,462End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service observations and ensemble model guidance confirmed an overnight low of 54–55°F for New York City on May 25, 2026, driven by mild southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and minimal radiational cooling under a weak pressure gradient. These conditions aligned closely with climatological norms for late May, when average lows hover near 61°F but can dip into the mid-50s with limited clear-sky nighttime cooling. The market-implied consensus at 100% for the 54–55°F bin reflects traders’ confidence in the official daily minimum from the National Weather Service Climatological Report. A shift would require an unexpected revision in verified station data or measurement methodology, both of which remain stable once finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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