Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 19?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 19?
13°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
12°C or below
$1,303 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,851 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$4,749 Vol.
No
15°C
$968 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,243 Vol.
No
17°C
$735 Vol.
No
18°C
$949 Vol.
No
19°C
$337 Vol.
No
20°C
$342 Vol.
No
21°C
$398 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$388 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,261End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,261End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions