Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate minimum temperatures on July 1 centered around 23–26°C amid the transition out of the East Asian monsoon’s plum rain period, when increased cloud cover and humidity typically moderate nighttime radiative cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional outlooks points to light rain or overcast conditions that limit temperature drops, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture could allow lows near 22°C or below. This scientific uncertainty—driven by short-term variability in steering patterns, local urban effects, and precipitation timing—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 22–26°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting historical July baselines and limited deviation potential just 48 hours out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$37,052 Vol.
$37,052 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$37,052 Vol.
$37,052 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
18°C or below
$1,781 Vol.
No
19°C
$844 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,152 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,513 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,785 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,973 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$12,100 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,448 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,413 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,117 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$1,925 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate minimum temperatures on July 1 centered around 23–26°C amid the transition out of the East Asian monsoon’s plum rain period, when increased cloud cover and humidity typically moderate nighttime radiative cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional outlooks points to light rain or overcast conditions that limit temperature drops, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture could allow lows near 22°C or below. This scientific uncertainty—driven by short-term variability in steering patterns, local urban effects, and precipitation timing—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 22–26°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting historical July baselines and limited deviation potential just 48 hours out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$37,052End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate minimum temperatures on July 1 centered around 23–26°C amid the transition out of the East Asian monsoon’s plum rain period, when increased cloud cover and humidity typically moderate nighttime radiative cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional outlooks points to light rain or overcast conditions that limit temperature drops, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture could allow lows near 22°C or below. This scientific uncertainty—driven by short-term variability in steering patterns, local urban effects, and precipitation timing—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 22–26°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting historical July baselines and limited deviation potential just 48 hours out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,052End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate minimum temperatures on July 1 centered around 23–26°C amid the transition out of the East Asian monsoon’s plum rain period, when increased cloud cover and humidity typically moderate nighttime radiative cooling. Model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional outlooks points to light rain or overcast conditions that limit temperature drops, while any clearer intervals or reduced moisture could allow lows near 22°C or below. This scientific uncertainty—driven by short-term variability in steering patterns, local urban effects, and precipitation timing—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across the 22–26°C range, with lower odds on extremes reflecting historical July baselines and limited deviation potential just 48 hours out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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