Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai indicate a nighttime minimum temperature on June 19 most likely in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the closely bunched market-implied odds favoring 24°C and 25°C. Typical early-summer conditions—high humidity, moderate winds, and possible cloud cover or showers—limit radiative cooling overnight, while the urban heat island effect sustains warmer lows compared to rural surroundings. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration shows limited spread around these values, though small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or precipitation could push the recorded minimum toward 23°C or hold it near 25°C. Historical June climatology places average lows near 20–22°C, but recent patterns and the day's specific setup support the tighter clustering traders have priced. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 19?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 19?
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
19°C or below
$364 Vol.
No
20°C
$643 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,599 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,042 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,046 Vol.
No
24°C
$11,319 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$8,092 Vol.
No
26°C
$697 Vol.
No
27°C
$966 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,012 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$334 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai indicate a nighttime minimum temperature on June 19 most likely in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the closely bunched market-implied odds favoring 24°C and 25°C. Typical early-summer conditions—high humidity, moderate winds, and possible cloud cover or showers—limit radiative cooling overnight, while the urban heat island effect sustains warmer lows compared to rural surroundings. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration shows limited spread around these values, though small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or precipitation could push the recorded minimum toward 23°C or hold it near 25°C. Historical June climatology places average lows near 20–22°C, but recent patterns and the day's specific setup support the tighter clustering traders have priced. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$33,113End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai indicate a nighttime minimum temperature on June 19 most likely in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the closely bunched market-implied odds favoring 24°C and 25°C. Typical early-summer conditions—high humidity, moderate winds, and possible cloud cover or showers—limit radiative cooling overnight, while the urban heat island effect sustains warmer lows compared to rural surroundings. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration shows limited spread around these values, though small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or precipitation could push the recorded minimum toward 23°C or hold it near 25°C. Historical June climatology places average lows near 20–22°C, but recent patterns and the day's specific setup support the tighter clustering traders have priced. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,113End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai indicate a nighttime minimum temperature on June 19 most likely in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the closely bunched market-implied odds favoring 24°C and 25°C. Typical early-summer conditions—high humidity, moderate winds, and possible cloud cover or showers—limit radiative cooling overnight, while the urban heat island effect sustains warmer lows compared to rural surroundings. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration shows limited spread around these values, though small shifts in timing of any frontal passage or precipitation could push the recorded minimum toward 23°C or hold it near 25°C. Historical June climatology places average lows near 20–22°C, but recent patterns and the day's specific setup support the tighter clustering traders have priced. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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