Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 Vol.
$10,646 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 Vol.
$10,646 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$1,112 Vol.
No
8°C
$825 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,431 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,560 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$519 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,156 Vol.
No
13°C
$188 Vol.
No
14°C
$357 Vol.
No
15°C
$546 Vol.
No
16°C
$361 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$590 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$10,646End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,646End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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