Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 13°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, anchored by official observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport recording a morning minimum of 13°C amid clear skies and light southerly winds of 10-15 km/h. This aligns with high-resolution forecasts from China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF models, which converged on radiative cooling to this level under high-pressure subsidence suppressing typical early-May lows around 16°C. Daytime highs reached 23°C with rising temperatures, solidifying the daily minimum. Realistic challenges include rare late-night cloud clearance enhancing cooling to 12°C or data revisions from station audits, though urban heat island effects and model agreement make shifts improbable ahead of final CMA confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
13°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
14°C <1%
$44,492 Vol.
$44,492 Vol.
May 9, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
14°C <1%
$44,492 Vol.
$44,492 Vol.
May 9, 2026
11°C or below
$3,346 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,386 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,834 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$2,360 Vol.
No
15°C
$8,787 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,239 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,364 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,430 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,106 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,383 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$5,256 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 13°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, anchored by official observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport recording a morning minimum of 13°C amid clear skies and light southerly winds of 10-15 km/h. This aligns with high-resolution forecasts from China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF models, which converged on radiative cooling to this level under high-pressure subsidence suppressing typical early-May lows around 16°C. Daytime highs reached 23°C with rising temperatures, solidifying the daily minimum. Realistic challenges include rare late-night cloud clearance enhancing cooling to 12°C or data revisions from station audits, though urban heat island effects and model agreement make shifts improbable ahead of final CMA confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$44,492End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 13°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, anchored by official observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport recording a morning minimum of 13°C amid clear skies and light southerly winds of 10-15 km/h. This aligns with high-resolution forecasts from China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF models, which converged on radiative cooling to this level under high-pressure subsidence suppressing typical early-May lows around 16°C. Daytime highs reached 23°C with rising temperatures, solidifying the daily minimum. Realistic challenges include rare late-night cloud clearance enhancing cooling to 12°C or data revisions from station audits, though urban heat island effects and model agreement make shifts improbable ahead of final CMA confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,492End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 13°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, anchored by official observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport recording a morning minimum of 13°C amid clear skies and light southerly winds of 10-15 km/h. This aligns with high-resolution forecasts from China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF models, which converged on radiative cooling to this level under high-pressure subsidence suppressing typical early-May lows around 16°C. Daytime highs reached 23°C with rising temperatures, solidifying the daily minimum. Realistic challenges include rare late-night cloud clearance enhancing cooling to 12°C or data revisions from station audits, though urban heat island effects and model agreement make shifts improbable ahead of final CMA confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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