Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Tokyo on April 27, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) observations at the official Tokyo station, which recorded this pre-dawn minimum amid persistent cloud cover that trapped nocturnal heat and mitigated radiative cooling. This outcome exceeds the prior JMA forecast of 13°C, aligning with urban heat island influences elevating late-April lows above the 11–12°C climatological average. With daytime temperatures now rising under partly cloudy skies, no further cooling is possible, as daily minima are set by early-morning readings. Revisions to JMA data are exceedingly rare absent sensor anomalies, solidifying this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on April 27?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 27?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$32,226 Vol.
$32,226 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$32,226 Vol.
$32,226 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
9°C or below
$1,979 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,612 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,964 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,974 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,616 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,489 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$2,538 Vol.
No
16°C
$6,082 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,074 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,744 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$3,155 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Tokyo on April 27, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) observations at the official Tokyo station, which recorded this pre-dawn minimum amid persistent cloud cover that trapped nocturnal heat and mitigated radiative cooling. This outcome exceeds the prior JMA forecast of 13°C, aligning with urban heat island influences elevating late-April lows above the 11–12°C climatological average. With daytime temperatures now rising under partly cloudy skies, no further cooling is possible, as daily minima are set by early-morning readings. Revisions to JMA data are exceedingly rare absent sensor anomalies, solidifying this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$32,226End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Tokyo on April 27, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) observations at the official Tokyo station, which recorded this pre-dawn minimum amid persistent cloud cover that trapped nocturnal heat and mitigated radiative cooling. This outcome exceeds the prior JMA forecast of 13°C, aligning with urban heat island influences elevating late-April lows above the 11–12°C climatological average. With daytime temperatures now rising under partly cloudy skies, no further cooling is possible, as daily minima are set by early-morning readings. Revisions to JMA data are exceedingly rare absent sensor anomalies, solidifying this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,226End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Tokyo on April 27, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMEDAS) observations at the official Tokyo station, which recorded this pre-dawn minimum amid persistent cloud cover that trapped nocturnal heat and mitigated radiative cooling. This outcome exceeds the prior JMA forecast of 13°C, aligning with urban heat island influences elevating late-April lows above the 11–12°C climatological average. With daytime temperatures now rising under partly cloudy skies, no further cooling is possible, as daily minima are set by early-morning readings. Revisions to JMA data are exceedingly rare absent sensor anomalies, solidifying this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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