Short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers for Tokyo on July 5, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with early-July climatological lows of roughly 22–23°C while reflecting the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key differentiating factors among the tightly clustered market outcomes (21–23°C at ~35–36% each) include variable shower timing, which could enhance evaporative cooling or trap heat via increased humidity, plus urban heat-island effects and light wind patterns that modulate overnight temperature drops. Model consensus remains modest given the two-day horizon, with any shift in cloud cover or precipitation intensity likely to tip probabilities between these adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$33,386 Vol.
$33,386 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$33,386 Vol.
$33,386 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
17°C or below
$1,507 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,845 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,703 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,433 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,694 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,361 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$5,371 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,299 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,787 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,831 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$2,556 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers for Tokyo on July 5, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with early-July climatological lows of roughly 22–23°C while reflecting the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key differentiating factors among the tightly clustered market outcomes (21–23°C at ~35–36% each) include variable shower timing, which could enhance evaporative cooling or trap heat via increased humidity, plus urban heat-island effects and light wind patterns that modulate overnight temperature drops. Model consensus remains modest given the two-day horizon, with any shift in cloud cover or precipitation intensity likely to tip probabilities between these adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$33,386End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers for Tokyo on July 5, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with early-July climatological lows of roughly 22–23°C while reflecting the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key differentiating factors among the tightly clustered market outcomes (21–23°C at ~35–36% each) include variable shower timing, which could enhance evaporative cooling or trap heat via increased humidity, plus urban heat-island effects and light wind patterns that modulate overnight temperature drops. Model consensus remains modest given the two-day horizon, with any shift in cloud cover or precipitation intensity likely to tip probabilities between these adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,386End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Short-term forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers for Tokyo on July 5, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with early-July climatological lows of roughly 22–23°C while reflecting the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal warmth driven by a strengthened Pacific High. Key differentiating factors among the tightly clustered market outcomes (21–23°C at ~35–36% each) include variable shower timing, which could enhance evaporative cooling or trap heat via increased humidity, plus urban heat-island effects and light wind patterns that modulate overnight temperature drops. Model consensus remains modest given the two-day horizon, with any shift in cloud cover or precipitation intensity likely to tip probabilities between these adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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