Traders have converged on an 18°C low for Tokyo on June 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by consistent observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold under prevailing high-pressure conditions. June climatology places typical minimums around 18–20°C, and current model guidance from regional forecasts indicates limited diurnal cooling or advection that would push readings lower before the 24-hour period closes. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of disruptive fronts or urban heat-island variability. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted marine layer or localized wind change, though such developments appear improbable given the latest guidance and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 16?
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$15,081 Vol.
$15,081 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$15,081 Vol.
$15,081 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
13°C or below
$733 Vol.
No
14°C
$974 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,157 Vol.
No
16°C
$923 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,407 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,615 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$2,707 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,987 Vol.
No
21°C
$420 Vol.
No
22°C
$893 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$265 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on an 18°C low for Tokyo on June 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by consistent observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold under prevailing high-pressure conditions. June climatology places typical minimums around 18–20°C, and current model guidance from regional forecasts indicates limited diurnal cooling or advection that would push readings lower before the 24-hour period closes. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of disruptive fronts or urban heat-island variability. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted marine layer or localized wind change, though such developments appear improbable given the latest guidance and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$15,081End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on an 18°C low for Tokyo on June 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by consistent observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold under prevailing high-pressure conditions. June climatology places typical minimums around 18–20°C, and current model guidance from regional forecasts indicates limited diurnal cooling or advection that would push readings lower before the 24-hour period closes. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of disruptive fronts or urban heat-island variability. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted marine layer or localized wind change, though such developments appear improbable given the latest guidance and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,081End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on an 18°C low for Tokyo on June 16 at 100% implied probability, driven by consistent observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold under prevailing high-pressure conditions. June climatology places typical minimums around 18–20°C, and current model guidance from regional forecasts indicates limited diurnal cooling or advection that would push readings lower before the 24-hour period closes. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of disruptive fronts or urban heat-island variability. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted marine layer or localized wind change, though such developments appear improbable given the latest guidance and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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