Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$47,506 Vol.
$47,506 Vol.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$47,506 Vol.
$47,506 Vol.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
$6,347 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,196 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,950 Vol.
No
14°C
$8,728 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,473 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$12,530 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,332 Vol.
No
18°C
$975 Vol.
No
19°C
$798 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,687 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$2,491 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$47,506End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47,506End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on 15°C as Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 6, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nowcasts and real-time observations from official stations like Haneda, where morning readings started near 18°C under persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight. Current evening temperatures hover around 17–18°C with mostly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with model ensembles projecting a minimum in the mid-teens Celsius—consistent with May climatological norms of 13.6°C daily lows but elevated by recent frontal passages stabilizing the boundary layer. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing after midnight, potentially dropping 1–2°C via enhanced infrared loss, though high humidity and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make sub-14°C unlikely; final JMA data release post-midnight will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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