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icon for Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

icon for Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Ended: Apr 30

Jul 31

Dec 31

Ended: Apr 30

Jul 31

Dec 31

$479,297 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$479,297 Vol.

Polymarket

1750

$21,777 Vol.

Yes

1775

$39,332 Vol.

Yes

1800

$168,010 Vol.

No

1900

$74,279 Vol.

No

1850

$27,965 Vol.

No

2000

$57,355 Vol.

No

1950

$36,078 Vol.

No

2100

$18,603 Vol.

No

2200

$35,898 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports 1,792 confirmed measles cases across 37 U.S. jurisdictions as of April 23, 2026, with 93% outbreak-associated amid 22 new outbreaks this year, mainly in South Carolina, Utah, Texas, and Arizona. Nearly 92% of patients were unvaccinated or of unknown status, reflecting pockets of low MMR coverage that fuel transmission in close-knit communities. Weekly cases by rash onset have slowed markedly—to seven for the week starting April 19—continuing a downward trend from March peaks. The next CDC update, typically weekly on Thursdays, will likely incorporate late-April reports with reporting lags, determining the precise April 30 tally and market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$479,297
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports 1,792 confirmed measles cases across 37 U.S. jurisdictions as of April 23, 2026, with 93% outbreak-associated amid 22 new outbreaks this year, mainly in South Carolina, Utah, Texas, and Arizona. Nearly 92% of patients were unvaccinated or of unknown status, reflecting pockets of low MMR coverage that fuel transmission in close-knit communities. Weekly cases by rash onset have slowed markedly—to seven for the week starting April 19—continuing a downward trend from March peaks. The next CDC update, typically weekly on Thursdays, will likely incorporate late-April reports with reporting lags, determining the precise April 30 tally and market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$479,297
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1750" at 100%, followed by "1775" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?" has generated $479.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?" is "1750" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1775" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.