Trader consensus slightly favors Carlos Mendoza at 42.5% implied probability for NL Manager of the Year, reflecting optimism around the Mets' deep roster and potential rebound from their 83-79 2025 finish amid NL East parity. The field remains tightly contested, with Torey Lovullo, Blake Butera, and a cluster at 34.5%—including newcomers Walt Weiss (Braves), Terry Francona (Reds finalist), Warren Schaeffer (Rockies), Tony Vitello (Giants), and Craig Stammen (Padres)—highlighting the NL's managerial turnover and bets on surprise turnarounds. Historical BBWAA patterns reward overachievers securing playoffs or divisions; early 2026 results, roster health, and exceeding projections will be pivotal swing factors in this fluid market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTorey Lovullo 33%
Blake Butera 33%
Walt Weiss 33%
Don Kelly 33%
Torey Lovullo
33%
Blake Butera
33%
Walt Weiss
33%
Don Kelly
33%
Craig Counsell
33%
Warren Schaeffer
33%
Pat Murphy
33%
Rob Thomson
33%
Tony Vitello
33%
Terry Francona
32%
Clayton McCullough
32%
Dave Roberts
32%
Craig Stammen
32%
Oliver Marmol
32%
Carlos Mendoza
42%
Torey Lovullo 33%
Blake Butera 33%
Walt Weiss 33%
Don Kelly 33%
Torey Lovullo
33%
Blake Butera
33%
Walt Weiss
33%
Don Kelly
33%
Craig Counsell
33%
Warren Schaeffer
33%
Pat Murphy
33%
Rob Thomson
33%
Tony Vitello
33%
Terry Francona
32%
Clayton McCullough
32%
Dave Roberts
32%
Craig Stammen
32%
Oliver Marmol
32%
Carlos Mendoza
42%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus slightly favors Carlos Mendoza at 42.5% implied probability for NL Manager of the Year, reflecting optimism around the Mets' deep roster and potential rebound from their 83-79 2025 finish amid NL East parity. The field remains tightly contested, with Torey Lovullo, Blake Butera, and a cluster at 34.5%—including newcomers Walt Weiss (Braves), Terry Francona (Reds finalist), Warren Schaeffer (Rockies), Tony Vitello (Giants), and Craig Stammen (Padres)—highlighting the NL's managerial turnover and bets on surprise turnarounds. Historical BBWAA patterns reward overachievers securing playoffs or divisions; early 2026 results, roster health, and exceeding projections will be pivotal swing factors in this fluid market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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