In the 2026 AL pennant race, the Tampa Bay Rays' division lead and strong overall record anchor trader consensus around them at 21.6% implied probability, closely trailed by the New York Yankees at 25% amid a tight AL East battle. Boston's resurgence through extended winning streaks has elevated their standing to 10.8%, while the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox maintain edges as AL West and Central frontrunners at 9.7% and 8.7%. Competitive parity across divisions, recent form swings, and head-to-head results among contenders keep probabilities bunched, with no single team pulling away decisively in the final stretch of the regular season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMLB: 2026 American League Champion
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
New York Yankees 25%
Tampa Bay Rays 21.6%
Boston Red Sox 10.4%
Houston Astros 9.7%
$4,232,806 Vol.
$4,232,806 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
25%
Tampa Bay Rays
22%
Boston Red Sox
10%
Houston Astros
10%
Chicago White Sox
9%
Seattle Mariners
5%
Toronto Blue Jays
3%
Detroit Tigers
3%
Cleveland Guardians
3%
Texas Rangers
3%
Minnesota Twins
1%
Baltimore Orioles
1%
Los Angeles Angels
<1%
Athletics
<1%
Kansas City Royals
<1%
New York Yankees 25%
Tampa Bay Rays 21.6%
Boston Red Sox 10.4%
Houston Astros 9.7%
$4,232,806 Vol.
$4,232,806 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
$56,635 Vol.
25%
Tampa Bay Rays
$395,116 Vol.
22%
Boston Red Sox
$55,069 Vol.
10%
Houston Astros
$781,135 Vol.
10%
Chicago White Sox
$252,280 Vol.
9%
Seattle Mariners
$32,228 Vol.
5%
Toronto Blue Jays
$151,618 Vol.
3%
Detroit Tigers
$115,960 Vol.
3%
Cleveland Guardians
$733,822 Vol.
3%
Texas Rangers
$26,934 Vol.
3%
Minnesota Twins
$253,071 Vol.
1%
Baltimore Orioles
$67,264 Vol.
1%
Los Angeles Angels
$308,484 Vol.
<1%
Athletics
$155,029 Vol.
<1%
Kansas City Royals
$848,162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 AL pennant race, the Tampa Bay Rays' division lead and strong overall record anchor trader consensus around them at 21.6% implied probability, closely trailed by the New York Yankees at 25% amid a tight AL East battle. Boston's resurgence through extended winning streaks has elevated their standing to 10.8%, while the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox maintain edges as AL West and Central frontrunners at 9.7% and 8.7%. Competitive parity across divisions, recent form swings, and head-to-head results among contenders keep probabilities bunched, with no single team pulling away decisively in the final stretch of the regular season.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$4,232,806End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 AL pennant race, the Tampa Bay Rays' division lead and strong overall record anchor trader consensus around them at 21.6% implied probability, closely trailed by the New York Yankees at 25% amid a tight AL East battle. Boston's resurgence through extended winning streaks has elevated their standing to 10.8%, while the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox maintain edges as AL West and Central frontrunners at 9.7% and 8.7%. Competitive parity across divisions, recent form swings, and head-to-head results among contenders keep probabilities bunched, with no single team pulling away decisively in the final stretch of the regular season.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,232,806End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the 2026 AL pennant race, the Tampa Bay Rays' division lead and strong overall record anchor trader consensus around them at 21.6% implied probability, closely trailed by the New York Yankees at 25% amid a tight AL East battle. Boston's resurgence through extended winning streaks has elevated their standing to 10.8%, while the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox maintain edges as AL West and Central frontrunners at 9.7% and 8.7%. Competitive parity across divisions, recent form swings, and head-to-head results among contenders keep probabilities bunched, with no single team pulling away decisively in the final stretch of the regular season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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