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icon for MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

icon for MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner
Sports·American League

MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

Yordan Alvarez 96.8%

Nick Kurtz 2.4%

Cal Raleigh 1.3%

José Ramírez 1.2%

Polymarket

$420,963 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez 96.8%

Nick Kurtz 2.4%

Cal Raleigh 1.3%

José Ramírez 1.2%

Polymarket

$420,963 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez

$9,001 Vol.

97%

Nick Kurtz

$1,787 Vol.

2%

Cal Raleigh

$4,098 Vol.

1%

José Ramírez

$760 Vol.

1%

Julio Rodríguez

$325 Vol.

1%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$846 Vol.

1%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$423 Vol.

1%

Junior Caminero

$151 Vol.

1%

Pete Alonso

$101 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$101 Vol.

1%

Corey Seager

$397,708 Vol.

<1%

Gunnar Henderson

$577 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$5,087 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's commanding lead in American League offensive categories has cemented him as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award. Entering late September, the Houston slugger tops AL batting average at .314 while pacing or ranking near the top in OPS (1.032), home runs (41), and RBIs (102), reflecting a season-long campaign of elite contact, power, and production that has outpaced rivals like Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso. Trader consensus reflects this statistical dominance and historical precedent favoring comprehensive hitters, with only minimal implied probability assigned to late surges by others. An upset would require an unprecedented final-week surge by a challenger combined with voters overlooking Alvarez's overall edge, though the season's proximity to its close makes such a shift highly improbable.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$420,963
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's commanding lead in American League offensive categories has cemented him as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award. Entering late September, the Houston slugger tops AL batting average at .314 while pacing or ranking near the top in OPS (1.032), home runs (41), and RBIs (102), reflecting a season-long campaign of elite contact, power, and production that has outpaced rivals like Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso. Trader consensus reflects this statistical dominance and historical precedent favoring comprehensive hitters, with only minimal implied probability assigned to late surges by others. An upset would require an unprecedented final-week surge by a challenger combined with voters overlooking Alvarez's overall edge, though the season's proximity to its close makes such a shift highly improbable.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$420,963
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 98%, followed by "Nick Kurtz" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" has generated $421K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" is "Yordan Alvarez" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nick Kurtz" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.