Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature advanced a mid-decade congressional redistricting plan and constitutional amendment in late 2025 and early 2026, which voters narrowly approved in an April referendum. The Virginia Supreme Court unanimously invalidated the measure on May 8, 2026, citing procedural violations in the legislative process that tainted the ballot effort, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined further review. With primaries already conducted under the existing post-2020 map and ballots prepared for the November midterms, no viable legal path remains for implementing the new lines. Traders assign 96% probability to “No” because these court rulings eliminated the amendment’s authority and compressed the timeline before Election Day. A successful late appeal or novel legislative workaround could theoretically reopen the issue, though both face steep procedural and calendar barriers.