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Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 84%

Dan Goldman 14%

Alexa Avilés 2.1%

Yuh-Line Niou <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander 84%

Dan Goldman 14%

Alexa Avilés 2.1%

Yuh-Line Niou <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander

$4,606 Vol.

84%

Dan Goldman

$1,883 Vol.

14%

Alexa Avilés

$1,278 Vol.

2%

Yuh-Line Niou

$969 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$1,266 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander's commanding 83.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary reflects trader consensus on his progressive momentum, fueled by endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and 32BJ SEIU, alongside residual popularity from his third-place mayoral primary finish. Incumbent Dan Goldman's recent April 23 pledge to inject at least $1 million personally—and match further donations—highlights his fundraising dominance after outpacing Lander threefold in Q1, yet underscores perceived vulnerability in this Brooklyn-Manhattan battleground. Goldman's new ad decrying a "war in Iran" aims to neutralize progressive critiques, but traders prioritize Lander's grassroots edge ahead of the June 23 contest, with minor candidates like Alexa Avilés trailing far behind amid field consolidation. Late self-funding surges or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,997
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander's commanding 83.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary reflects trader consensus on his progressive momentum, fueled by endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and 32BJ SEIU, alongside residual popularity from his third-place mayoral primary finish. Incumbent Dan Goldman's recent April 23 pledge to inject at least $1 million personally—and match further donations—highlights his fundraising dominance after outpacing Lander threefold in Q1, yet underscores perceived vulnerability in this Brooklyn-Manhattan battleground. Goldman's new ad decrying a "war in Iran" aims to neutralize progressive critiques, but traders prioritize Lander's grassroots edge ahead of the June 23 contest, with minor candidates like Alexa Avilés trailing far behind amid field consolidation. Late self-funding surges or turnout shifts could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,997
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 84%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.