Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a 64% implied probability in trader consensus for the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting incumbency advantages and $1 million cash on hand despite soft support in challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's internal poll released April 20, which showed him at 42% among 598 likely voters. Avila Chevalier, at 31%, benefits from recent Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats endorsements targeting Espaillat's Israel stance, plus Q1 fundraising where she outpaced him ($270,000 vs. $230,000), amid a leftward district shift seen in 2025 mayoral results. Recent ballot challenges among campaigns, including Espaillat's objection to Avila Chevalier's signatures, add procedural uncertainty but have not shifted odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAdriano Espaillat 67%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 30%
Oscar Romero 1.1%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$19,897 Vol.
$19,897 Vol.
Adriano Espaillat
67%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
37%
Oscar Romero
1%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
Adriano Espaillat 67%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 30%
Oscar Romero 1.1%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$19,897 Vol.
$19,897 Vol.
Adriano Espaillat
67%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
37%
Oscar Romero
1%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a 64% implied probability in trader consensus for the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting incumbency advantages and $1 million cash on hand despite soft support in challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's internal poll released April 20, which showed him at 42% among 598 likely voters. Avila Chevalier, at 31%, benefits from recent Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats endorsements targeting Espaillat's Israel stance, plus Q1 fundraising where she outpaced him ($270,000 vs. $230,000), amid a leftward district shift seen in 2025 mayoral results. Recent ballot challenges among campaigns, including Espaillat's objection to Avila Chevalier's signatures, add procedural uncertainty but have not shifted odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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