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Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Adriano Espaillat 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 35%

Oscar Romero 1.1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$19,897 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 35%

Oscar Romero 1.1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$19,897 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat

$5,129 Vol.

64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$2,424 Vol.

35%

Oscar Romero

$4,379 Vol.

1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,831 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$1,562 Vol.

<1%

Jaleel Amador

$934 Vol.

<1%

James Felton Keith

$1,840 Vol.

<1%

Matt Miller

$1,799 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability to win New York's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, buoyed by name recognition, fundraising strength, and historical incumbency advantages in closed primaries, despite a challenger's internal Upswing Research poll from late March (released April 20) showing his support at 42% among likely voters—softening to a 46%-35% Avila Chevalier lead after messaging on affordability and foreign policy. Progressive Darializa Avila Chevalier, endorsed by DSA and Justice Democrats, has gained traction at 35.5% amid ballot access challenges filed last week by multiple campaigns, including Espaillat's team against her petitions, underscoring a competitive race in this Latino-heavy Upper Manhattan-Bronx district as turnout and endorsements loom large.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,897
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability to win New York's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, buoyed by name recognition, fundraising strength, and historical incumbency advantages in closed primaries, despite a challenger's internal Upswing Research poll from late March (released April 20) showing his support at 42% among likely voters—softening to a 46%-35% Avila Chevalier lead after messaging on affordability and foreign policy. Progressive Darializa Avila Chevalier, endorsed by DSA and Justice Democrats, has gained traction at 35.5% amid ballot access challenges filed last week by multiple campaigns, including Espaillat's team against her petitions, underscoring a competitive race in this Latino-heavy Upper Manhattan-Bronx district as turnout and endorsements loom large.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,897
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 64%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $19.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.