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Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Adriano Espaillat 67%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 30%

Oscar Romero 1.1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$19,897 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat 67%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 30%

Oscar Romero 1.1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$19,897 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat

$5,129 Vol.

67%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$2,424 Vol.

37%

Oscar Romero

$4,379 Vol.

1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,831 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$1,562 Vol.

<1%

Jaleel Amador

$934 Vol.

<1%

James Felton Keith

$1,840 Vol.

<1%

Matt Miller

$1,799 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a 64% implied probability in trader consensus for the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting incumbency advantages and $1 million cash on hand despite soft support in challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's internal poll released April 20, which showed him at 42% among 598 likely voters. Avila Chevalier, at 31%, benefits from recent Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats endorsements targeting Espaillat's Israel stance, plus Q1 fundraising where she outpaced him ($270,000 vs. $230,000), amid a leftward district shift seen in 2025 mayoral results. Recent ballot challenges among campaigns, including Espaillat's objection to Avila Chevalier's signatures, add procedural uncertainty but have not shifted odds significantly.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,897
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a 64% implied probability in trader consensus for the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting incumbency advantages and $1 million cash on hand despite soft support in challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's internal poll released April 20, which showed him at 42% among 598 likely voters. Avila Chevalier, at 31%, benefits from recent Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats endorsements targeting Espaillat's Israel stance, plus Q1 fundraising where she outpaced him ($270,000 vs. $230,000), amid a leftward district shift seen in 2025 mayoral results. Recent ballot challenges among campaigns, including Espaillat's objection to Avila Chevalier's signatures, add procedural uncertainty but have not shifted odds significantly.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,897
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 67%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $19.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.