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icon for CA -04主な受賞者
選挙·プライマリ

CA -04主な受賞者

icon for CA -04主な受賞者
選挙·プライマリ

CA -04主な受賞者

$22,099 Vol.

2026/06/02
Polymarket

$22,099 Vol.

Polymarket

マイク・トンプソン

$6,602 Vol.

99%

エリック・ジョーンズ

$4,475 Vol.

91%

ヒース・ファルカーソン

$315 Vol.

11%

トレバー・メレル

$6,994 Vol.

11%

ジョン・ウェスリー・タイラー

$670 Vol.

9%

マンディ・グシャル

$728 Vol.

7%

シャロン・ブラウン

$1,605 Vol.

6%

ローリー・マッケンジー

$710 Vol.

6%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates fundraising with over $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March, bolstering his frontrunner status in California's June 2 top-two primary for the Solid Democratic CA-04 seat, where Kamala Harris won 56% in 2024. Challenger Democrat Eric Jones trails at $1.45 million but outpaces a fragmented Republican field of six candidates—Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, Jimih Jones, L. John MacKenzie, Raymond Riehle, and Chuck Uribe—plus independent Thomas Roach, raising risks of vote-splitting that could advance two Democrats to November. Certified candidates finalized March 26; ballots mail May 4 amid Thompson's new TV ad and Democratic Party endorsement, with no recent polling to shift trader consensus on his primary lock.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$22,099
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson dominates fundraising with over $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March, bolstering his frontrunner status in California's June 2 top-two primary for the Solid Democratic CA-04 seat, where Kamala Harris won 56% in 2024. Challenger Democrat Eric Jones trails at $1.45 million but outpaces a fragmented Republican field of six candidates—Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, Jimih Jones, L. John MacKenzie, Raymond Riehle, and Chuck Uribe—plus independent Thomas Roach, raising risks of vote-splitting that could advance two Democrats to November. Certified candidates finalized March 26; ballots mail May 4 amid Thompson's new TV ad and Democratic Party endorsement, with no recent polling to shift trader consensus on his primary lock.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$22,099
終了日
2026/06/02
マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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よくある質問

「CA -04主な受賞者」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「マイク・トンプソン」で99%、次いで「エリック・ジョーンズ」が91%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、99¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に99%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「CA -04主な受賞者」は$22.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 26, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「CA -04主な受賞者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CA -04主な受賞者」の現在のフロントランナーは「マイク・トンプソン」で99%であり、市場がこの結果に99%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「エリック・ジョーンズ」で91%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CA -04主な受賞者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。