Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning his primary with over 93 percent, faces Republican nominee David Brock Smith, who secured the GOP nod with a narrow plurality in the May primary. Oregon has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and early forecasts project a Democratic margin near 20 points based on the state's partisan lean. With no general election polls released yet, traders see limited data to differentiate among margin buckets, resulting in a tight 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustered probabilities across Democratic victory ranges. Key factors sustaining the balance include the early stage of the general election cycle, absence of head-to-head polling or fundraising reports, and uncertainty over national midterm dynamics that could influence turnout in this safely Democratic state. Upcoming campaign milestones such as candidate debates, first independent surveys, or shifts in the broader political environment could widen separation among the margin categories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 35％以上 42%
共和党が勝利 39%
民主党 5〜10% 29%
民主党 10～15％ 28%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党が勝利
39%
民主党 0-5%
23%
民主党 5〜10%
29%
民主党 10～15％
28%
民主党 15～20％
26%
民主党 20〜25％
25%
民主党 25～30％
26%
民主党 30-35％
26%
民主党 35％以上
42%
民主党 35％以上 42%
共和党が勝利 39%
民主党 5〜10% 29%
民主党 10～15％ 28%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党が勝利
$158 Vol.
39%
民主党 0-5%
$138 Vol.
23%
民主党 5〜10%
$0 Vol.
29%
民主党 10～15％
$0 Vol.
28%
民主党 15～20％
$0 Vol.
26%
民主党 20〜25％
$0 Vol.
25%
民主党 25～30％
$0 Vol.
26%
民主党 30-35％
$0 Vol.
26%
民主党 35％以上
$0 Vol.
42%
The 2026 Oregon Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning his primary with over 93 percent, faces Republican nominee David Brock Smith, who secured the GOP nod with a narrow plurality in the May primary. Oregon has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and early forecasts project a Democratic margin near 20 points based on the state's partisan lean. With no general election polls released yet, traders see limited data to differentiate among margin buckets, resulting in a tight 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustered probabilities across Democratic victory ranges. Key factors sustaining the balance include the early stage of the general election cycle, absence of head-to-head polling or fundraising reports, and uncertainty over national midterm dynamics that could influence turnout in this safely Democratic state. Upcoming campaign milestones such as candidate debates, first independent surveys, or shifts in the broader political environment could widen separation among the margin categories.
The 2026 Oregon Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
音量
$296終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Oregon Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning his primary with over 93 percent, faces Republican nominee David Brock Smith, who secured the GOP nod with a narrow plurality in the May primary. Oregon has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and early forecasts project a Democratic margin near 20 points based on the state's partisan lean. With no general election polls released yet, traders see limited data to differentiate among margin buckets, resulting in a tight 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustered probabilities across Democratic victory ranges. Key factors sustaining the balance include the early stage of the general election cycle, absence of head-to-head polling or fundraising reports, and uncertainty over national midterm dynamics that could influence turnout in this safely Democratic state. Upcoming campaign milestones such as candidate debates, first independent surveys, or shifts in the broader political environment could widen separation among the margin categories.
The 2026 Oregon Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oregon Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$296終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning his primary with over 93 percent, faces Republican nominee David Brock Smith, who secured the GOP nod with a narrow plurality in the May primary. Oregon has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and early forecasts project a Democratic margin near 20 points based on the state's partisan lean. With no general election polls released yet, traders see limited data to differentiate among margin buckets, resulting in a tight 50-50 split on leading outcomes and clustered probabilities across Democratic victory ranges. Key factors sustaining the balance include the early stage of the general election cycle, absence of head-to-head polling or fundraising reports, and uncertainty over national midterm dynamics that could influence turnout in this safely Democratic state. Upcoming campaign milestones such as candidate debates, first independent surveys, or shifts in the broader political environment could widen separation among the margin categories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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