Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4, 2026, top-two primary to face Republican state Sen. John Braun in the November general election for the swing WA-03 seat. Perez's moderate record, cross-aisle legislative approach, and prior narrow reelection in a district that backed Donald Trump in 2024 have anchored trader consensus around Democratic retention. Recent polling shows a toss-up race with minimal separation between the candidates, while the district's R+2 partisan voting index and competitive history keep the outcome sensitive to turnout, national midterm conditions, and any late shifts in voter priorities. The implied probability in current market pricing reflects these structural advantages for the sitting representative ahead of the fall campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,127 Vol.
$27,127 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
88%
共和党
11%
$27,127 Vol.
$27,127 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$17,358 Vol.
88%
共和党
$9,770 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4, 2026, top-two primary to face Republican state Sen. John Braun in the November general election for the swing WA-03 seat. Perez's moderate record, cross-aisle legislative approach, and prior narrow reelection in a district that backed Donald Trump in 2024 have anchored trader consensus around Democratic retention. Recent polling shows a toss-up race with minimal separation between the candidates, while the district's R+2 partisan voting index and competitive history keep the outcome sensitive to turnout, national midterm conditions, and any late shifts in voter priorities. The implied probability in current market pricing reflects these structural advantages for the sitting representative ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
音量
$27,127終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4, 2026, top-two primary to face Republican state Sen. John Braun in the November general election for the swing WA-03 seat. Perez's moderate record, cross-aisle legislative approach, and prior narrow reelection in a district that backed Donald Trump in 2024 have anchored trader consensus around Democratic retention. Recent polling shows a toss-up race with minimal separation between the candidates, while the district's R+2 partisan voting index and competitive history keep the outcome sensitive to turnout, national midterm conditions, and any late shifts in voter priorities. The implied probability in current market pricing reflects these structural advantages for the sitting representative ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,127終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4, 2026, top-two primary to face Republican state Sen. John Braun in the November general election for the swing WA-03 seat. Perez's moderate record, cross-aisle legislative approach, and prior narrow reelection in a district that backed Donald Trump in 2024 have anchored trader consensus around Democratic retention. Recent polling shows a toss-up race with minimal separation between the candidates, while the district's R+2 partisan voting index and competitive history keep the outcome sensitive to turnout, national midterm conditions, and any late shifts in voter priorities. The implied probability in current market pricing reflects these structural advantages for the sitting representative ahead of the fall campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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