The Republican Party holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-11 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, anchored in Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn. Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis secured reelection in 2024 with roughly 64% of the vote and faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries. A January 2026 state court ruling that the current map unconstitutionally diluted minority voting power was upheld on appeal but blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court in March, preserving the existing boundaries for this cycle. Democratic primary contenders Michael DeCillis and Allison Ziogas have yet to demonstrate broad viability in polling or fundraising against the entrenched Republican advantage in this working-class district. Trader consensus reflects these structural and incumbency factors with limited recent movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,692 Vol.
$14,692 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
11%
$14,692 Vol.
$14,692 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,160 Vol.
87%
民主党
$6,532 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-11 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, anchored in Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn. Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis secured reelection in 2024 with roughly 64% of the vote and faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries. A January 2026 state court ruling that the current map unconstitutionally diluted minority voting power was upheld on appeal but blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court in March, preserving the existing boundaries for this cycle. Democratic primary contenders Michael DeCillis and Allison Ziogas have yet to demonstrate broad viability in polling or fundraising against the entrenched Republican advantage in this working-class district. Trader consensus reflects these structural and incumbency factors with limited recent movement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$14,692終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-11 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, anchored in Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn. Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis secured reelection in 2024 with roughly 64% of the vote and faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries. A January 2026 state court ruling that the current map unconstitutionally diluted minority voting power was upheld on appeal but blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court in March, preserving the existing boundaries for this cycle. Democratic primary contenders Michael DeCillis and Allison Ziogas have yet to demonstrate broad viability in polling or fundraising against the entrenched Republican advantage in this working-class district. Trader consensus reflects these structural and incumbency factors with limited recent movement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,692終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-11 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, anchored in Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn. Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis secured reelection in 2024 with roughly 64% of the vote and faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries. A January 2026 state court ruling that the current map unconstitutionally diluted minority voting power was upheld on appeal but blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court in March, preserving the existing boundaries for this cycle. Democratic primary contenders Michael DeCillis and Allison Ziogas have yet to demonstrate broad viability in polling or fundraising against the entrenched Republican advantage in this working-class district. Trader consensus reflects these structural and incumbency factors with limited recent movement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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