The Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett holds a strong 77% implied probability in the NJ-07 general election market due to her decisive June 2 primary victory and positioning in a competitive suburban district that has flipped between parties in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr., seeking a third term, faces headwinds from months of absence tied to an undisclosed illness, which drew attention even after his May return and assurances of recovery. Recent polling shows Bennett narrowly ahead or competitive, reflecting the district’s swing character and voter concerns over Kean’s health. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with Bennett’s Navy veteran background and fundraising, more heavily than historical Republican leanings in the seat, though the November outcome remains sensitive to turnout and any further health updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
76%
共和党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$485 Vol.
76%
共和党
$3,727 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett holds a strong 77% implied probability in the NJ-07 general election market due to her decisive June 2 primary victory and positioning in a competitive suburban district that has flipped between parties in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr., seeking a third term, faces headwinds from months of absence tied to an undisclosed illness, which drew attention even after his May return and assurances of recovery. Recent polling shows Bennett narrowly ahead or competitive, reflecting the district’s swing character and voter concerns over Kean’s health. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with Bennett’s Navy veteran background and fundraising, more heavily than historical Republican leanings in the seat, though the November outcome remains sensitive to turnout and any further health updates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$4,212終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett holds a strong 77% implied probability in the NJ-07 general election market due to her decisive June 2 primary victory and positioning in a competitive suburban district that has flipped between parties in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr., seeking a third term, faces headwinds from months of absence tied to an undisclosed illness, which drew attention even after his May return and assurances of recovery. Recent polling shows Bennett narrowly ahead or competitive, reflecting the district’s swing character and voter concerns over Kean’s health. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with Bennett’s Navy veteran background and fundraising, more heavily than historical Republican leanings in the seat, though the November outcome remains sensitive to turnout and any further health updates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,212終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett holds a strong 77% implied probability in the NJ-07 general election market due to her decisive June 2 primary victory and positioning in a competitive suburban district that has flipped between parties in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr., seeking a third term, faces headwinds from months of absence tied to an undisclosed illness, which drew attention even after his May return and assurances of recovery. Recent polling shows Bennett narrowly ahead or competitive, reflecting the district’s swing character and voter concerns over Kean’s health. Traders appear to weigh these factors, along with Bennett’s Navy veteran background and fundraising, more heavily than historical Republican leanings in the seat, though the November outcome remains sensitive to turnout and any further health updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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