California's 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins well above national averages in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, who assumed office in January 2025 after winning the prior cycle, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election in a Silicon Valley-centered seat with high Democratic voter registration and affluent, tech-oriented demographics. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. A major unforeseen scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome before November, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for Republican success.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$76,668 Vol.
$76,668 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$76,668 Vol.
$76,668 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$49,124 Vol.
93%
共和党
$27,544 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins well above national averages in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, who assumed office in January 2025 after winning the prior cycle, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election in a Silicon Valley-centered seat with high Democratic voter registration and affluent, tech-oriented demographics. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. A major unforeseen scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome before November, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for Republican success.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$76,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins well above national averages in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, who assumed office in January 2025 after winning the prior cycle, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election in a Silicon Valley-centered seat with high Democratic voter registration and affluent, tech-oriented demographics. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. A major unforeseen scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome before November, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for Republican success.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$76,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins well above national averages in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, who assumed office in January 2025 after winning the prior cycle, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election in a Silicon Valley-centered seat with high Democratic voter registration and affluent, tech-oriented demographics. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory. A major unforeseen scandal, health event, or dramatic national political shift could still alter the outcome before November, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for Republican success.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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