Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, encompassing Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for President Biden and Senator Baldwin. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, filed for re-election ahead of the June 2026 deadline and faces no significant primary opposition, while Republican recruitment has been limited. With the August primary and November general election still months away, the current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in the district’s electorate. Late developments such as an unusually strong Republican candidate or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though such scenarios would represent a sharp departure from established trends in this heavily Democratic territory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,837 Vol.
94%
共和党
$19,208 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, encompassing Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for President Biden and Senator Baldwin. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, filed for re-election ahead of the June 2026 deadline and faces no significant primary opposition, while Republican recruitment has been limited. With the August primary and November general election still months away, the current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in the district’s electorate. Late developments such as an unusually strong Republican candidate or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though such scenarios would represent a sharp departure from established trends in this heavily Democratic territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$28,045終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, encompassing Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for President Biden and Senator Baldwin. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, filed for re-election ahead of the June 2026 deadline and faces no significant primary opposition, while Republican recruitment has been limited. With the August primary and November general election still months away, the current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in the district’s electorate. Late developments such as an unusually strong Republican candidate or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though such scenarios would represent a sharp departure from established trends in this heavily Democratic territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,045終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 93 percent. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, encompassing Milwaukee and its working-class suburbs, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for President Biden and Senator Baldwin. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, filed for re-election ahead of the June 2026 deadline and faces no significant primary opposition, while Republican recruitment has been limited. With the August primary and November general election still months away, the current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive challengers or major shifts in the district’s electorate. Late developments such as an unusually strong Republican candidate or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though such scenarios would represent a sharp departure from established trends in this heavily Democratic territory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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