Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,352 Vol.
98%
共和党
$21,164 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$33,516終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,516終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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