Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,837 Vol.
94%
共和党
$19,208 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$28,045終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,045終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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