Democratic incumbent John Mannion, who flipped NY-22 in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, holds structural advantages in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Mannion to advance automatically, while Republican Kailee Buller emerged as the main challenger following her March 2026 announcement, alongside limited additional GOP interest. Incumbent activity, including recent USDA commitments and constituent service announcements, reinforces continuity, though the narrow market spread reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean and the early stage of the cycle with five months until Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
50%
民主党
53%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$807 Vol.
50%
民主党
$866 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion, who flipped NY-22 in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, holds structural advantages in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Mannion to advance automatically, while Republican Kailee Buller emerged as the main challenger following her March 2026 announcement, alongside limited additional GOP interest. Incumbent activity, including recent USDA commitments and constituent service announcements, reinforces continuity, though the narrow market spread reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean and the early stage of the cycle with five months until Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$1,673終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion, who flipped NY-22 in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, holds structural advantages in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Mannion to advance automatically, while Republican Kailee Buller emerged as the main challenger following her March 2026 announcement, alongside limited additional GOP interest. Incumbent activity, including recent USDA commitments and constituent service announcements, reinforces continuity, though the narrow market spread reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean and the early stage of the cycle with five months until Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,673終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent John Mannion, who flipped NY-22 in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, holds structural advantages in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Mannion to advance automatically, while Republican Kailee Buller emerged as the main challenger following her March 2026 announcement, alongside limited additional GOP interest. Incumbent activity, including recent USDA commitments and constituent service announcements, reinforces continuity, though the narrow market spread reflects the district’s modest Democratic lean and the early stage of the cycle with five months until Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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