Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and carrying a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index that has favored the party in every election since 2009. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes’ substantial fundraising advantage, consistent endorsements, and the district’s structural Democratic lean ahead of the August 11 primary and November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders face limited resources and the same unfavorable partisan terrain. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, an unexpected primary outcome, or an unusually strong national Republican performance remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,995 Vol.
$33,995 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$33,995 Vol.
$33,995 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,042 Vol.
94%
共和党
$19,953 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and carrying a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index that has favored the party in every election since 2009. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes’ substantial fundraising advantage, consistent endorsements, and the district’s structural Democratic lean ahead of the August 11 primary and November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders face limited resources and the same unfavorable partisan terrain. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, an unexpected primary outcome, or an unusually strong national Republican performance remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$33,995終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and carrying a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index that has favored the party in every election since 2009. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes’ substantial fundraising advantage, consistent endorsements, and the district’s structural Democratic lean ahead of the August 11 primary and November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders face limited resources and the same unfavorable partisan terrain. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, an unexpected primary outcome, or an unusually strong national Republican performance remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,995終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and carrying a D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index that has favored the party in every election since 2009. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting Himes’ substantial fundraising advantage, consistent endorsements, and the district’s structural Democratic lean ahead of the August 11 primary and November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders face limited resources and the same unfavorable partisan terrain. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, an unexpected primary outcome, or an unusually strong national Republican performance remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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