The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position through high name recognition, substantial fundraising with millions in cash reserves, and ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. He faces a Democratic primary opponent on September 1, 2026, but no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or a national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural partisan and incumbency advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$40,681 Vol.
$40,681 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
3%
$40,681 Vol.
$40,681 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$20,406 Vol.
94%
共和党
$20,275 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position through high name recognition, substantial fundraising with millions in cash reserves, and ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. He faces a Democratic primary opponent on September 1, 2026, but no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or a national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural partisan and incumbency advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$40,681終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position through high name recognition, substantial fundraising with millions in cash reserves, and ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. He faces a Democratic primary opponent on September 1, 2026, but no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or a national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural partisan and incumbency advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$40,681終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position through high name recognition, substantial fundraising with millions in cash reserves, and ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. He faces a Democratic primary opponent on September 1, 2026, but no competitive Republican has emerged ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or a national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural partisan and incumbency advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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