The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,746 Vol.
$24,746 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$24,746 Vol.
$24,746 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,804 Vol.
95%
共和党
$18,942 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$24,746終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,746終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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